Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf80e2a0db3f71125a0a2e7dca7d6073a935e738a6341e421fbcaddb3eed01f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7761…f74bbacked Yes | 41c | 895.2$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 692.24$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 440.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 376.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 46c | 315.37$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 274.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 43c | 216.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 56c | 214.26$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 40c | 210.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 54c | 184.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 160.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 43c | 148.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 141.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 138.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 53c | 128.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 128.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 56c | 126.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 117$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 48c | 103.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 47c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 100.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 46c | 90.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 81.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 49c | 69.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 59c | 67.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 64.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 49c | 63.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 61.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 33c | 60.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 51c | 56.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 58c | 53.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 49.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked Yes | 33c | 46.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 35c | 44.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 44.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 43c | 43.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 44c | 43.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 42.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 42.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 41.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 40.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 60c | 39.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 46c | 39.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 54c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 46c | 37.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 31.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 30.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 30.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…36e5backed Yes | 39c | 29.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 29.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 47c | 28.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 28.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…fb21backed No | 62c | 28.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 26.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…1030backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…196bbacked No | 64c | 23.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 57c | 23.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 46c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 53c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 53c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…769cbacked No | 62c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 61c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 56c | 19.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 64c | 16.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 75c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 73c | 13.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.