TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,104

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes32c1,341$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.9242036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c690.11$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.382,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No73c666.46$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.3318347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No40c509.58$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.698,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No74c491.29$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.78,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes25c347.87$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.821,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c255.72$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes24c249.48$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.484035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No21c248.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.234,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c244.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.4910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcec2…fababacked Yes27c241.21$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.421735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No75c236.37$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.931,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes22c224.43$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.947926.6%21 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes33c220.25$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.644536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd93d…72d2backed Yes24c208.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.62437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No9c198.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8466543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes20c195.05$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No27c192.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.852,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…2305backed Yes16c170.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.637213.9%10 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes32c167.56$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3847136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes30c167.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3745238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c153$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.219,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes24c152.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.075,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No70c146.25$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3829345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes30c140.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.055,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c138.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.54,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9907…8a50backed Yes58c137.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.858046.3%37 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes65c136.79$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2927051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes25c136.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.564,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe684…da82backed No74c134.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001978.9%15 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick69cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0476…5794backed Yes22c134.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+357.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No68c133.61$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4524546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No75c130.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.961,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes79c127$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6761365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No30c111.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.874,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No68c110$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.82,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No77c102.8$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7737355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7822645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.517231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes25c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9942253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c95.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.227,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed Yes21c92.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7528244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes24c90.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.543050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes24c90.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4765353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No76c85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.61,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes25c82.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.741,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c81.23$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.792,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No43c80.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.752,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c80.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.463,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No78c80$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes27c78.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.761,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Yes63c77.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.39148.4%44 W · 47 L+11.5wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+59.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes25c74.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0441331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ecc…d023backed Yes29c74.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1910647.2%50 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes22c69.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5523731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes28c66.89$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.161,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes24c66.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f08…7249backed No75c66.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c66.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked No62c65.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.155729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x35b6…caadbacked No73c62.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.44369.8%30 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.429443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes25c57.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.481,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes33c56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed Yes19c55.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.64334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c53.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.123,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79a…88d0backed No69c51.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.334841.7%20 W · 28 L-7.0wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8174…be40backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3939346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes26c49.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3915553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes26c48.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.949960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb182…aef4backed Yes26c47.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.432025%5 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No37c44.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.432,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c42.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.914,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896e…b02abacked Yes73c40.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.052347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No78c40.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.612,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No71c40.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7717766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No72c39.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes74c39.79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.518567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked Yes65c35.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.557755.8%43 W · 34 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes75c35.12$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.783,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No77c32.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3316859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No76c32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3226256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No59c31.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.74,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a39…cf39backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+50.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No75c30.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.971,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes36c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.194431.8%14 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x308f…8607backed No80c28.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.724348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5464167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8be…ee6fbacked Yes57c26.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.34812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No71c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7564859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No69c23.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.031,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes61c23.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0821964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.793,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a8…a8b7backed No76c22.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1714161%86 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes74c22.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7222937.1%85 W · 144 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No78c21.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.712,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.