Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a34acabeba863e4af4cbbff669749f0279f1a646344c7246d72f5826d30c9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 1,341$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.92 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 690.11$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 73c | 666.46$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.33 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 40c | 509.58$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 491.29$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 347.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.82 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 255.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 24c | 249.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.48 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 248.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 244.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 27c | 241.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 236.37$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.93 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 22c | 224.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.94 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 220.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 24c | 208.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 9c | 198.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 20c | 195.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 192.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 16c | 170.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 32c | 167.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 30c | 167.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.37 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 153$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 152.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 70c | 146.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 140.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 138.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 58c | 137.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 65c | 136.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 136.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 74c | 134.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…5794backed Yes | 22c | 134.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +357.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 68c | 133.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 75c | 130.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 111.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 77c | 102.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 25c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 95.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 21c | 92.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 24c | 90.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 24c | 90.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 76c | 85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 82.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 81.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 43c | 80.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 80.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 78.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 63c | 77.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 25c | 74.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 29c | 74.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 22c | 69.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 66.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 66.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 62c | 65.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 73c | 62.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 25c | 57.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 33c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 19c | 55.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 53.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 69c | 51.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 26c | 49.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 26c | 48.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed Yes | 26c | 47.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 44.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 42.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 73c | 40.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 40.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 71c | 40.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 39.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 74c | 39.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 65c | 35.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 35.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 77c | 32.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 31.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…cf39backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 75c | 30.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 80c | 28.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8be…ee6fbacked Yes | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 23.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 61c | 23.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 76c | 22.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 74c | 22.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 21.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.