Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c46842a4fc68b3c8a94d83b40cbad537e7a7f2db34cb25791256dbeed2c6803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 67c | 899.13$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.13 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 822.73$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 446.07$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 351.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 31c | 196.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 183.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 21c | 182.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 52c | 171$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 53c | 169.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 165.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 27c | 131.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 12c | 130.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 32c | 108.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 68c | 102.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 28c | 102.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 90.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 13c | 83.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 69c | 82.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 55c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 72c | 69.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 65.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 72c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 29c | 52.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 46c | 52.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 51.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 46c | 40.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 67c | 39.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 79c | 37.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 52c | 34.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 32.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 46c | 28.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 53c | 27.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 55c | 19.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.