Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Ugo Humbert vs Lorenzo Sonego
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c525164a72c6a44d28f9ec2e1a754ebf6f25a3a29eece0d48a9b7b22b6b26a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Humbertof Humbert, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sonego | 36c | 15,818$5,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,707.01 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Humbert | 64c | 12,158$7,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,416.64 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Humbert | 55c | 6,237$3,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,790.28 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sonego | 38c | 4,632$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.62 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Humbert | 59c | 4,250$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.33 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Sonego | 34c | 3,615$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Sonego | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.96 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sonego | 30c | 2,999$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.72 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Humbert | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Humbert | 65c | 2,165$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Humbert | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Sonego | 31c | 1,819$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.53 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sonego | 36c | 1,742$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.01 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Humbert | 53c | 1,472$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sonego | 44c | 1,372$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.14 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sonego | 35c | 1,298$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.17 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Sonego | 39c | 1,000$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.6 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Humbert | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Humbert | 64c | 993.56$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Humbert | 53c | 785.75$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.01 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Humbert | 64c | 756.2$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.43 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Humbert | 64c | 750$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Sonego | 42c | 694.93$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.05 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Sonego | 40c | 650$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Sonego | 49c | 621.96$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.06 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Sonego | 12c | 582$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…e848backed Sonego | 39c | 440.59$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.83 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Humbert | 70c | 412.04$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.24 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d4…dbd6backed Humbert | 66c | 410.59$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 332 | 56%186 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sonego | 44c | 381.66$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.89 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Humbert | 52c | 381.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Humbert | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Sonego | 42c | 307.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.09 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sonego | 37c | 293.44$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…9d01backed Humbert | 66c | 214.71$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Sonego | 35c | 207.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Humbert | 68c | 183.43$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Sonego | 37c | 176$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…7fe2backed Humbert | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Humbert | 63c | 157.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Humbert | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Humbert | 67c | 148.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Humbert | 68c | 147.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Sonego | 41c | 147.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Sonego | 45c | 142.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Humbert | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Humbert | 57c | 114.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Humbert | 61c | 106.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Sonego | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Sonego | 37c | 91.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Humbert | 61c | 88.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Humbert | 61c | 84.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2d…82f1backed Humbert | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76f…d897backed Sonego | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…8a0abacked Sonego | 29c | 55.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Humbert | 65c | 40.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Humbert | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Humbert | 57c | 37.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Humbert | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48fa…4864backed Humbert | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Sonego | 46c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…05f5backed Sonego | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Sonego | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Humbert | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Humbert | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Humbert | 61c | 18.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Humbert | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.