NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c578ba97f7f036cceae72f740c3e4367179983ed6b0066db8b18df2e63ecb5a

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,035

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,469 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	7,993$3,865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,864.61	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Over	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Over	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,470	379	44.3%168 W · 211 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Over	52c	2,207$1,148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,059.24	197	54.3%107 W · 90 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Over	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	443	37.9%168 W · 275 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Over	53c	1,887$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.79	258	47.3%122 W · 136 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	54c	1,850$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$849.64	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over	51c	1,059$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.82	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	50c	759.77$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$381.21	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	47c	700$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ed…2b21backed Under	50c	630.46$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.23	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	50c	473.4$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.61	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	58c	444.07$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.78	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	48c	441$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.67	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	46c	308.04$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.7	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Under	50c	304.78$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.39	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under	7c	250$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	62c	238.66$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.76	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Over	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d1…0ffabacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+56.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	164	40.9%67 W · 97 L	-13.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under	49c	146.46$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.52	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Under	51c	144$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.44	430	52.3%225 W · 205 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under	44c	134.89$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	531	49.3%262 W · 269 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6a…86bbbacked Under	45c	123.22$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	745	47.2%352 W · 393 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c9…0348backed Over	52c	88.46$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.46	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+37%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac18…6f88backed Under	35c	70.36$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.54	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f91…8065backed Over	51c	54.6$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.75	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	493	51.7%255 W · 238 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x911d…2438backed Over	51c	45.1$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.1	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under	49c	40.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	165	46.1%76 W · 89 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over	54c	37.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.14	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under	49c	37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f45…709abacked Under	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	92	42.4%39 W · 53 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event