NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76e66debe007e6e5d74e0690cf478dbe1b821bea746e1f1301aa71360feff790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 50c | 80,000$40,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,000 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 50c | 53,027$26,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,513.58 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 40,289$20,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,168.36 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 39,882$19,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,955.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 50c | 18,391$9,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,255.15 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 50c | 15,696$7,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,848.19 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 49c | 14,892$7,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,594.9 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 10,003$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001.19 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 8,417$4,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,255.7 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 50c | 6,533$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.5 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 6,069$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,095.08 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 4,955$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.9 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6551…e043backed Over | 50c | 4,400$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…59f1backed Under | 50c | 4,154$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Under | 50c | 2,941$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.5 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Under | 50c | 2,120$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…b0b3backed Under | 50c | 2,028$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…52cabacked Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Under | 51c | 1,903$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.53 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 50c | 1,418$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 51c | 1,019$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.69 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 50c | 839$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.5 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 788.68$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.57 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 780$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.2 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 48c | 526.57$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.23 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 477.36$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.48 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Under | 50c | 426$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 391.72$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.86 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 50c | 388$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 192.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Over | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 50c | 147.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 50c | 118.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 50c | 91.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 51c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 73.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 51c | 58.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 50c | 52.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…6759backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -16.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 50c | 40.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 561 | 54.5%306 W · 255 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 51c | 35.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…5817backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Over | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Bulls won
- Jazz vs. BullsBulls won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.