NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d1e2f146706004f5269a59d2a41a808389e8ee4c1080f58770950906c1d39e4

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Bulls, Jazz
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $77,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,394 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb552…94a8backed Bulls	53c	8,709$4,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,601.98	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls	54c	7,009$3,785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,784.64	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Bulls	52c	6,840$3,553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,552.8	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a67…c54fbacked Jazz	49c	5,627$2,757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,869.77	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8914…95f0backed Jazz	49c	4,993$2,447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,546.43	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz	46c	4,731$2,156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,575.07	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	52c	4,476$2,330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,330.33	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bulls	51c	4,275$2,183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,182.58	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e91…d686backed Bulls	51c	3,676$1,875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,874.76	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7c…4f1dbacked Jazz	49c	3,354$1,643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,710.54	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfd…cfe4backed Bulls	51c	3,257$1,661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,661.07	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a24…0585backed Jazz	49c	3,184$1,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,623.84	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0446…b589backed Bulls	51c	3,120$1,591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,591.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ad…5092backed Bulls	51c	3,048$1,554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,554.48	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe38d…a6e3backed Bulls	51c	2,760$1,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,407.6	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c08…0be9backed Jazz	49c	2,686$1,316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,369.86	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d4a…f29dbacked Jazz	49c	2,671$1,309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,362.19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81b6…a445backed Bulls	51c	2,402$1,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,225.02	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz	47c	2,400$1,116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,284	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz	48c	2,237$1,069 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,168.18	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x554b…6beebacked Bulls	51c	2,045$1,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,042.95	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8328…09c4backed Bulls	51c	2,002$1,021 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,021.02	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x595c…e9afbacked Bulls	51c	1,949$994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.99	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.33per pick	50cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8605…5384backed Bulls	51c	1,887$962 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$962.37	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x407f…b34dbacked Bulls	51c	1,526$778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$778.26	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jazz	50c	1,409$705 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$704.56	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…14a3backed Jazz	49c	1,284$629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$654.84	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	47c	1,263$592 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$670.37	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8b…1924backed Bulls	51c	1,211$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.61	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd61d…2de5backed Jazz	49c	1,182$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$602.82	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz	50c	1,181$589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$592.08	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…c82ebacked Jazz	49c	1,115$546 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$568.65	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Jazz	48c	1,094$525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$568.88	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0cb…ec69backed Jazz	49c	1,031$505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.81	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c76…cc7bbacked Jazz	49c	853$418 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$435.03	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda83…3a35backed Jazz	49c	835$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.85	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Jazz	47c	580.34$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.4	263	36.5%96 W · 167 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls	49c	433$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.17	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bulls	18c	366$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.04	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Jazz	47c	302$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.06	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz	47c	294$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.99	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Jazz	41c	272.99$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.22	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Jazz	24c	267.77$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.07	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Jazz	50c	252.08$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.04	89	36%32 W · 57 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Jazz	51c	252$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.14	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Jazz	36c	214.31$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.62	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Jazz	47c	201.09$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.37	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Bulls	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	250	56.8%142 W · 108 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Bulls	19c	158.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.17	95	15.8%15 W · 80 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0726…3351backed Bulls	52c	150$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bulls	59c	149.32$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.38	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jazz	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd0…4516backed Bulls	66c	100$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Jazz	34c	90.04$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.43	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz	35c	89$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.44	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz	47c	80.88$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.26	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed Jazz	51c	72.55$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.55	165	55.2%91 W · 74 L	-12.1wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls	54c	71.41$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.79	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls	57c	71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.22	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3854…586abacked Bulls	58c	63.11$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.63	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bulls	57c	59.89$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.14	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Bulls	54c	56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Jazz	49c	55.92$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.26	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Jazz	66c	52.87$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.98	248	46.8%116 W · 132 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Bulls	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	99	57.6%57 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x754f…6229backed Bulls	60c	51.67$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.7wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Bulls	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Jazz	49c	41.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.01	1,164	49.6%577 W · 587 L	+7.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Bulls	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6a…86bbbacked Jazz	33c	40$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.8	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c1…1c3dbacked Bulls	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Bulls	55c	38.88$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	448	44.2%198 W · 250 L	-11.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Jazz	46c	38.65$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.87	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Bulls	66c	36.86$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Bulls	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	54%47 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Bulls	56c	30.52$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	243	63.8%155 W · 88 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls	59c	28.24$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f8…5486backed Bulls	54c	27.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Jazz	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Bulls	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff6a…baf0backed Bulls	63c	18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed Bulls	61c	17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Bulls	59c	16.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	169	42.6%72 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event