NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc9f8a1bd8cd678af59cd957b849c10c46fe75497050e84ef7a4470409715f46

Rebuilt 51 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Bulls, Jazz
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $141,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $142,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,562 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Jazz	50c	100,000$49,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50,500	431	48.7%210 W · 221 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls	50c	37,970$19,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,036.67	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	51c	21,000$10,632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,632.14	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls	51c	16,246$8,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,285.46	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Bulls	51c	14,839$7,568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,567.99	404	46.8%189 W · 215 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bulls	51c	10,000$5,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,100	1,024	50.8%520 W · 504 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Jazz	49c	6,203$3,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,163.53	354	50.8%180 W · 174 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bulls	51c	5,822$2,944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,943.84	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bulls	51c	5,479$2,794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,794.3	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bulls	51c	4,876$2,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,486.76	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Bulls	50c	4,400$2,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,200	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+27%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Jazz	50c	4,250$2,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,125	285	54%154 W · 131 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Bulls	51c	4,180$2,132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,131.8	657	50.1%329 W · 328 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Jazz	49c	4,082$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,081.63	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Bulls	52c	3,956$2,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,057.23	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Jazz	48c	3,000$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,560	379	44.3%168 W · 211 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Jazz	47c	2,776$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,476.25	400	41.5%166 W · 234 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz	48c	2,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,300	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Bulls	53c	2,285$1,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,210.85	112	52.7%59 W · 53 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Jazz	48c	1,000$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520	320	51.9%166 W · 154 L	+10.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Bulls	54c	924.98$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.24	238	45%107 W · 131 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Bulls	51c	900$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462	641	39%250 W · 391 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Bulls	55c	801.82$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz	45c	592.67$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.54	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Bulls	54c	543$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.73	263	36.5%96 W · 167 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bulls	51c	515.44$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.88	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz	50c	486.22$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.76	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Jazz	47c	294$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.82	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Bulls	59c	254.39$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	304	54.9%167 W · 137 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Jazz	46c	223$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.89	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Jazz	49c	205$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.55	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe105…1efbbacked Bulls	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Bulls	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	470	48.5%228 W · 242 L	-18.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Bulls	52c	190.17$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.83	473	49%232 W · 241 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bulls	48c	181.22$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.99	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Jazz	39c	161.23$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.83	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz	46c	131.15$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.36	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3d…f8c6backed Bulls	79c	128.21$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	80cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Jazz	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	283	48.8%138 W · 145 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46a…3598backed Bulls	54c	93.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4049backed Bulls	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	242	53.3%129 W · 113 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Bulls	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	930	36.5%339 W · 591 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Jazz	47c	82$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.14	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Bulls	50c	79.23$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	169	42.6%72 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Bulls	51c	76$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.12	421	43.7%184 W · 237 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0de…9635backed Jazz	46c	65.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.22	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Jazz	20c	61.06$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.85	144	38.9%56 W · 88 L	+32.5wins	+0.23per pick	16cpaid	+228.3%equal weight	71+0.19 edge/pick
0xef25…c969backed Jazz	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Bulls	55c	45.38$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Jazz	50c	44$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	355	51.3%182 W · 173 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls	56c	39.29$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Jazz	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Bulls	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…a98bbacked Bulls	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	84	50%42 W · 42 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Bulls	71c	36.12$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Bulls	51c	35.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Bulls	53c	34.72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	522	46.6%243 W · 279 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Jazz	44c	34.04$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.06	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls	52c	31.08$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.16	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Jazz	48c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	183	39.3%72 W · 111 L	-13.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f91…8065backed Jazz	48c	26.97$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.02	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Bulls	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	455	42.4%193 W · 262 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Bulls	52c	22.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	454	60.4%274 W · 180 L	+21.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls	51c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89a4…5f78backed Bulls	51c	20.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	100	53%53 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89d9…5136backed Bulls	55c	18.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event