NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d8dce7c2e1f8fda07f1238f7fcba28c42f65c1884ba00a9326d231d9d85815

Rebuilt 14 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Bulls, Jazz
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,925 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls	50c	6,197$3,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,067.36	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	50c	3,303$1,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,651.48	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz	51c	2,787$1,417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,370.17	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d1…8a29backed Jazz	49c	2,422$1,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,246.86	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	49c	1,632$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$798.37	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Jazz	51c	1,563$797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$765.87	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Jazz	49c	1,540$753 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$786.25	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls	52c	980$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.6	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls	52c	802.74$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.02	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bulls	51c	417.8$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.36	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Bulls	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Bulls	53c	377.82$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	315	51.7%163 W · 152 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Jazz	50c	319.93$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.97	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Jazz	48c	220$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.4	481	46.2%222 W · 259 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Bulls	51c	208.98$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.58	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Jazz	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bulls	51c	204.08$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.08	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Bulls	52c	199.99$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	274	35.4%97 W · 177 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Bulls	52c	164.49$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.29	641	39%250 W · 391 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Jazz	49c	134.47$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.35	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz	48c	128.28$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.42	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef25…c969backed Jazz	41c	122.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.15	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Bulls	51c	117.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked Jazz	53c	76.17$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.17	114	43%49 W · 65 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Jazz	54c	74.5$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	244	52.5%128 W · 116 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Bulls	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	317	48.9%155 W · 162 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Bulls	46c	30.88$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3854…586abacked Jazz	49c	30.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.7	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Jazz	49c	29$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.92	183	39.3%72 W · 111 L	-13.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Jazz	50c	28.05$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.03	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7081…2d9cbacked Jazz	54c	26.83$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.47	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Bulls	49c	20.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	169	42.6%72 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event