NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d701eb9acc224fba71393c0ca039133f7250d96b544261e9fba77f00d7c092f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Bulls, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls | 50c | 29,208$14,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,569.12 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Bulls | 48c | 20,408$9,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,871.54 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz | 49c | 12,322$5,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,328.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 43c | 10,106$4,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,766 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Bulls | 53c | 5,588$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.67 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Bulls | 55c | 4,912$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,694.83 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Jazz | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Bulls | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz | 48c | 2,685$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.34 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Bulls | 51c | 2,221$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.71 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jazz | 52c | 2,122$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.8 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Bulls | 52c | 2,083$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.33 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Jazz | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 50c | 1,918$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Jazz | 45c | 1,648$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.39 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Bulls | 51c | 1,628$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.31 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Jazz | 47c | 1,594$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.39 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jazz | 49c | 1,477$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.34 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jazz | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.16 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…a405backed Bulls | 52c | 1,430$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.6 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Jazz | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.99 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…c8b5backed Bulls | 46c | 1,020$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 55c | 1,002$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.74 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jazz | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Bulls | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 50c | 605.26$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.05 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Bulls | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Jazz | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bulls | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 46c | 489.12$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.12 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bulls | 48c | 480$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Jazz | 38c | 480$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.6 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Bulls | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Bulls | 52c | 443.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…ec6dbacked Jazz | 54c | 410$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…f49bbacked Jazz | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…0566backed Bulls | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls | 44c | 379.53$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…7122backed Jazz | 54c | 330$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Jazz | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Jazz | 53c | 282.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41bf…64d9backed Jazz | 54c | 280$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Jazz | 56c | 212.49$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Bulls | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Jazz | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bulls | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Bulls | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Jazz | 51c | 156.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Jazz | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…d0abbacked Jazz | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Jazz | 43c | 82.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Bulls | 50c | 79.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Jazz | 48c | 76.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Bulls | 58c | 73.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Jazz | 49c | 65.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Jazz | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Jazz | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Bulls | 55c | 44.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Jazz | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…1733backed Bulls | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Jazz | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Jazz | 46c | 26.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls | 55c | 25.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Jazz | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Jazz | 51c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bulls | 46c | 24.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Jazz | 46c | 24.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b47…f129backed Bulls | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Jazz | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bulls | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…b4fabacked Bulls | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Bulls won
- Jazz vs. BullsBulls won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 246.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.