NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa47663731f6242fac5f23c288a92bf42ee4fd520eff182ccc4b965b1a43844a4

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $82,731
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,731 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Under	55c	40,198$21,914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,914.27	404	46.8%189 W · 215 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	46c	14,740$6,719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,020.98	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Under	53c	11,376$6,029 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,029.49	167	52.1%87 W · 80 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	46c	10,327$4,769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,558.54	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over	47c	10,000$4,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,300	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Over	47c	3,408$1,602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,805.98	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	48c	2,775$1,341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,434.32	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	52c	2,606$1,367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,367.21	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Over	47c	1,443$678 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$764.67	208	56.7%118 W · 90 L	+13.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under	54c	1,389$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	46c	1,161$534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$626.94	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	45c	1,015$457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$558.25	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	49c	836.76$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.48	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	47c	534.84$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.48	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Over	47c	529.79$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.79	301	57.1%172 W · 129 L	+14.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over	52c	472.57$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.57	139	51.1%71 W · 68 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	46c	456.52$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.52	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	52c	453$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.46	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	50c	400.18$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.09	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	52c	301$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.09	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Over	47c	276.51$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.55	323	46.4%150 W · 173 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	45c	200$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under	50c	182$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	52c	102.51$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Under	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-4.6wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	53c	60.38$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Under	54c	55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	260	44.6%116 W · 144 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Under	51c	49$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	177	47.5%84 W · 93 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over	45c	36.49$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.07	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over	47c	36.4$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.29	263	36.5%96 W · 167 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Under	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed Over	45c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.75	193	46.6%90 W · 103 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event