Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c7f3f4cad8f93bcc884c820bd84cf3edd96df85747e7cbe7893b3e9fad3239e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,600$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,599$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.39 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 62c | 1,036$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.3 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 29c | 627.49$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 22c | 562.78$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 532.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 485.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 450.4$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 392.48$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 341.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 332.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 311.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 26c | 273.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 222.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 207.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 32c | 199.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 174.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 27c | 164.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…9379backed No | 70c | 125.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 33c | 121.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 121$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 21c | 107.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 32c | 106.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 100.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 21c | 96.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 75.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 74.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 68c | 72.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 70.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 40c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 55.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 51.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 49.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 60c | 46.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 25c | 40.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 38c | 36.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…1725backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 62c | 35.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 40c | 34.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 58c | 31.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 27.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 38c | 27.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 75c | 26.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 80c | 26.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 73c | 21.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 21.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…5b66backed Yes | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 61c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 64c | 20.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 70c | 18.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 68c | 16.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…6146backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.