Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f624109f8bbef0d8d1414c1c297d64cce026257963226c1f47bdb838a474c7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 33c | 1,006$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.73 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 838.56$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 22c | 526.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 450.4$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed Yes | 21c | 444.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 438.8$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 67c | 402.27$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 343.37$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 311.83$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 75c | 291.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 262$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 26c | 247.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 239.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb051…9bfbbacked Yes | 9c | 233.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 59c | 215.57$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 20c | 211.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 193.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 186.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 43c | 166.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 30c | 166.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 163.88$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 161.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 17c | 134.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 126.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 78c | 123.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 57c | 115.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 112.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 78c | 108.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 47c | 105.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 89.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 72.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 21c | 72.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 68c | 72.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 70c | 71.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 21c | 71.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 71c | 70.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 59.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 55c | 55.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 51.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 50c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed Yes | 67c | 48.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 75c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 54c | 39.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 62c | 38.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 77c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…69a6backed Yes | 40c | 36.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 51c | 34.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 45c | 31.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 56c | 31.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked Yes | 74c | 30.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Yes | 73c | 30.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 52c | 30.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 66c | 29.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 59c | 21.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 53c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 72c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 67c | 19.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…9ac6backed Yes | 67c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 77c | 14.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.