TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof L1ga Team, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$624,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$824,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $624,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed MOUZ45c167,034$75,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,822.8114840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed L1ga Team58c97,251$56,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,309.685549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked L1ga Team58c38,449$22,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,145.62,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed MOUZ65c18,111$11,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,338.8340051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed MOUZ64c17,753$11,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,363.593666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed L1ga Team14c11,588$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.8771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed L1ga Team34c10,225$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.3512560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked L1ga Team36c9,726$3,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,532.1322954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed MOUZ67c7,308$4,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.765761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed MOUZ65c6,312$4,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,209.1941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7150…0a2bbacked L1ga Team33c6,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed L1ga Team80c5,425$4,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,339.753339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked L1ga Team32c5,289$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.323243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked L1ga Team41c4,829$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.098544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked L1ga Team36c4,755$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.8828062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked L1ga Team29c4,257$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.9636851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked L1ga Team69c4,171$2,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,893.21573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked L1ga Team33c4,157$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.7634544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed L1ga Team34c4,036$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.358242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed MOUZ57c4,009$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.0811753%62 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8681…ef99backed MOUZ66c3,963$2,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.156746.3%31 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed L1ga Team52c3,753$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.32035%7 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed MOUZ69c3,746$2,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.1415457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ77c3,500$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked L1ga Team37c3,479$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.9516945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team42c3,474$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.612,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed L1ga Team39c3,351$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.3969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed L1ga Team34c3,262$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.7332854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed L1ga Team31c3,092$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.639042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked MOUZ64c2,982$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.25757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed L1ga Team33c2,738$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.6281029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked L1ga Team34c2,609$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.0516725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed MOUZ55c2,479$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.8654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MOUZ66c2,449$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.6680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked L1ga Team35c2,291$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.8541242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team46c2,279$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.312,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…1c32backed L1ga Team8c2,162$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ecb…52a5backed L1ga Team71c2,159$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked L1ga Team35c2,135$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.377935.4%28 W · 51 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed L1ga Team32c2,124$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.464744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed L1ga Team2c2,070$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6211836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed L1ga Team30c2,025$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.7625935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4849…763bbacked L1ga Team35c1,910$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked MOUZ67c1,896$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.695158.8%30 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed L1ga Team35c1,864$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.528042.5%34 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed L1ga Team34c1,842$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.2716752.7%88 W · 79 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MOUZ64c1,807$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.6856852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked L1ga Team67c1,765$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.671,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed L1ga Team35c1,761$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.3433549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked L1ga Team74c1,692$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.3489938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed L1ga Team33c1,634$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.5696245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed MOUZ28c1,595$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.9671342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed L1ga Team61c1,541$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.1662650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed L1ga Team72c1,537$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.0313068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed L1ga Team36c1,523$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.113743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked MOUZ65c1,504$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.479650%48 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked L1ga Team47c1,470$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.7842145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6209…4dadbacked L1ga Team36c1,336$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.79887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.43per pick44cpaid+100.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed L1ga Team36c1,336$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.813456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed L1ga Team37c1,304$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.0822853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e16…b78abacked L1ga Team36c1,292$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked MOUZ63c1,276$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.746245.2%28 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed L1ga Team35c1,251$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.4680544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed MOUZ64c1,230$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.6245046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed L1ga Team25c1,207$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.1630647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked L1ga Team34c1,200$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40818362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked L1ga Team35c1,192$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.3929240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d2ffbacked MOUZ67c1,144$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked L1ga Team68c1,092$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.2967043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked L1ga Team35c1,074$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.6232652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed L1ga Team9c1,032$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3611150.5%56 W · 55 L+14.2wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked MOUZ67c1,017$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.5214641.8%61 W · 85 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked L1ga Team35c1,012$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.1736759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed L1ga Team36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36060349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed L1ga Team37c988.12$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.9665441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed L1ga Team35c987.22$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.5354445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed L1ga Team12c981.11$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1137832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed L1ga Team33c889.67$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5919742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed L1ga Team35c871.38$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.985841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed L1ga Team3c858.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.319242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked MOUZ65c854.37$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.791442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed MOUZ60c830$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33250769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed L1ga Team35c819.26$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.3416641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed L1ga Team24c800.74$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.867429.7%22 W · 52 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked L1ga Team69c798.03$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.1679341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc914…c458backed L1ga Team59c789.47$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.3920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked MOUZ64c789.31$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.1541944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdfa…7491backed MOUZ41c787.14$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.026544.6%29 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked L1ga Team36c772.62$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.1495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MOUZ67c752.94$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.4786659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a8…48c0backed L1ga Team16c750$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.51060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+41.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed MOUZ65c728.08$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8921540.9%88 W · 127 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed L1ga Team34c713.99$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.948352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed L1ga Team38c651.47$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4229347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed MOUZ67c622.43$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.441050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed MOUZ79c621.66$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.796141%25 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked L1ga Team36c619.56$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0920827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed L1ga Team36c611.68$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.2118954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked L1ga Team38c610.72$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.847550.7%38 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed MOUZ64c610.48$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.0913975.5%105 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.