TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,184 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c399.23$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes4c397.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.461,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes23c379.65$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.121,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c274.77$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.38,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c268.3$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.095,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c245.85$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.795,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No78c235.96$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.851,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes24c219.55$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.352114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c210$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.985,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes32c203.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.745,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4654853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes35c189$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No70c185.23$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.44,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c184.95$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.94,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c182.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.866,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes29c176.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3631043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes7c172.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.658134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes31c167.63$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7446240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes29c150$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7160739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes36c142.57$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3341331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No73c133.1$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.122,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes17c132.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.961,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c126$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.872,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No74c124.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.517,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes33c124.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.133,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b6…0400backed Yes33c121.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c118$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.34,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c116.33$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.579,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes23c112.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.811,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes13c110.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0316543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes23c107.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.442544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes14c106.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c100.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.213,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No69c100.17$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.86,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3326540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.31,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3312934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c99.75$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.411,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes34c97.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.829832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c94.18$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.689,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes30c85.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6949551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.640535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes28c76.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes21c75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.142,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes37c67.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No78c64.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.972,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2552444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c61.4$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.283,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No64c59.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.347,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes36c56.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes39c55.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes27c53.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.192,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No68c52.93$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes36c51.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.580130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ae…9df0backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732065%13 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes32c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.840025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155532.7%18 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No72c39.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.082,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes30c38.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.614,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.152,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c34.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.692,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No68c32.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No64c32.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.841,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7529…9d10backed No64c30.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.952236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No78c29.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.540461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No68c29.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes38c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.643455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.464167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No76c26.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1738961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.752,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No60c22.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No66c22.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.541,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No69c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9128660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x116c…8f82backed No68c21.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.734178%32 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.615666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.690555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d6…8360backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.86162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ec4…cb91backed No68c19.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.357170.4%50 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No77c19.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.521,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c19.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.013,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No70c18.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5546549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No67c18.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No65c17.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.281,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8325868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.