Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb95c81b44a82dd4a0008c683e3c0712b088def53776ce36e5fde3ed9380189cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda33…daccbacked No | 54c | 2,523$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.31 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,330$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.63 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 616.01$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 48c | 608.25$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.26 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 467.28$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 436.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.65 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 339.1$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.59 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 301.51$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 299.56$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 289.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 45c | 277.82$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.47 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 273.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 68c | 236.26$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 231.6$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 228.28$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 221$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 210$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 39c | 209$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 53c | 204.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 180.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 179.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 30c | 162$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 158.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 144.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 134.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 53c | 134$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 130.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 123.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 121.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 56c | 121.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 117.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 117.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 116.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 40c | 114.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73d…86bebacked No | 51c | 109.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 108.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 106.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 104.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 45c | 102.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 71c | 102.16$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 99.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 98.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 96.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 75c | 94.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 33c | 88.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 88.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 59c | 87.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 85.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 47c | 83.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 78.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 73.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 40c | 73.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 38c | 70.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…aea7backed No | 60c | 64.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 64.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 62.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 61.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 59.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 38c | 56.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 56c | 56.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 73c | 54.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 55c | 52.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 51.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 50.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 50.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 49.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…7a69backed Yes | 42c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +94%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 57c | 48.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 44.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 48c | 42.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 48c | 41.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 40.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 40.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 41c | 39.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 37.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.