TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs SAW Youngsters (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ENJOYof ENJOY, SAW Youngsters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked SAW Youngsters49c14,456$7,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,062.755,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ce…100fbacked SAW Youngsters45c13,282$5,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,981.559753.6%52 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed SAW Youngsters50c9,068$4,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,552.452,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed ENJOY61c7,554$4,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.421,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed ENJOY49c3,450$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.4521953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd8…ce32backed ENJOY49c3,000$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5351060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked ENJOY55c2,300$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.9975056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed ENJOY50c2,104$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.6722044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ENJOY52c2,087$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.123,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed ENJOY50c1,961$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.7180942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed ENJOY56c1,905$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.351,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked ENJOY43c1,617$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.835847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed ENJOY50c1,605$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.4823732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed ENJOY59c1,500$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.540542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed ENJOY52c1,295$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.8529543.1%127 W · 168 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked ENJOY69c1,236$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.442,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked SAW Youngsters38c1,194$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.1112727.6%35 W · 92 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ENJOY72c1,180$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.367,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed ENJOY47c1,148$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.1361948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed ENJOY53c1,101$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.881,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed SAW Youngsters51c1,000$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50631761.2%194 W · 123 L+22.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x145b…5f8fbacked SAW Youngsters56c981.56$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.772157.1%12 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc38…d93fbacked SAW Youngsters47c965.22$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4555050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed ENJOY49c944.03$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.4638841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed SAW Youngsters46c899.81$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.741,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked ENJOY50c881.69$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.859537.9%36 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed ENJOY49c855.98$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.555860.3%35 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ENJOY58c834.64$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.192,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ENJOY49c816$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.365,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff3…9b05backed SAW Youngsters51c800$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4043455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked SAW Youngsters50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40042050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked ENJOY49c792.78$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.4822645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b17…d36dbacked ENJOY50c728$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3645731.6%18 W · 39 L-8.5wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-36.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed SAW Youngsters36c703.99$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2423356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked ENJOY50c692.12$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2134140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ENJOY67c600.99$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.934,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed SAW Youngsters50c600.29$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6499148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece5…6de0backed ENJOY52c591.59$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.0913449.3%66 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd747…076cbacked ENJOY51c571.02$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.83850%19 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked ENJOY50c550$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27517240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked ENJOY50c546.6$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.2548948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked SAW Youngsters40c538.11$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.6375245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed ENJOY62c528.75$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.631,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed ENJOY52c520.1$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.1637848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked ENJOY50c504.13$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.6344747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked ENJOY50c500$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24875833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed SAW Youngsters52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26020743%89 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ENJOY51c479.31$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.092,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdaf…7733backed SAW Youngsters7c478.43$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+95.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ENJOY49c472.01$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2422,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed ENJOY55c449.39$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2316850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed ENJOY49c410$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.135153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e6…9622backed SAW Youngsters50c400$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8414356.6%81 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked SAW Youngsters50c399.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.456344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ENJOY53c382.11$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.253,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed ENJOY55c380.33$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8559343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed ENJOY53c377.94$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.5848851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed SAW Youngsters54c370.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed SAW Youngsters51c353.23$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1447054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked ENJOY48c337.79$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.120045%90 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed ENJOY49c315.88$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.155039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcefd…d6aabacked ENJOY49c312.24$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.245738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f25…d5debacked SAW Youngsters46c307.04$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.844158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed SAW Youngsters32c301.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5751942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked SAW Youngsters48c297.6$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.814,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed SAW Youngsters29c293.38$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8612750.4%64 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dc3…0e9cbacked ENJOY50c290.32$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.161338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked ENJOY51c287.02$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.283,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked ENJOY57c272$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.771,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ENJOY57c272$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.742,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked SAW Youngsters45c268.69$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.012,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb3e…db66backed SAW Youngsters51c259.09$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.165137.3%19 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed ENJOY79c253.77$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3520745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed SAW Youngsters34c247$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.342,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e0…708fbacked ENJOY49c244.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.93956.4%22 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked SAW Youngsters39c243.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.151,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed ENJOY72c239.53$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9989046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed ENJOY55c230$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.527647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd679…91a0backed ENJOY50c220$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1104742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked ENJOY51c214.71$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4311155%61 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ENJOY60c209.71$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.352,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed28…87cebacked SAW Youngsters51c206.7$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.423461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeae…a2fabacked ENJOY49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.087350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed ENJOY49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0828843.1%124 W · 164 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed ENJOY50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1008061.3%49 W · 31 L+7.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed ENJOY55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed ENJOY51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9310731.8%34 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc84f…bb5bbacked ENJOY59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x821b…8b2bbacked ENJOY50c196.72$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.761643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe8…1edbbacked SAW Youngsters51c192.39$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3510151.5%52 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed SAW Youngsters52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037949.3%187 W · 192 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed ENJOY51c192$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4426048.5%126 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed SAW Youngsters50c184.63$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3259755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked SAW Youngsters45c182.64$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.634,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c60…01febacked ENJOY50c180$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9019151.8%99 W · 92 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed SAW Youngsters50c167.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2288330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd85…1d60backed SAW Youngsters48c163.72$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3820147.3%95 W · 106 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40fc…498dbacked ENJOY49c163.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2714441%59 W · 85 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed ENJOY60c158$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.240666.3%269 W · 137 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5323…3ff8backed ENJOY70c151.9$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.91361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.