Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce3e927e183bc41c8ae64678787f0e423da30dce3805342d1b46d63203143d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 50c | 1,745$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.31 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 10c | 860.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 60c | 775.17$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.02 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 69c | 773.79$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 631.51$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.29 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed No | 17c | 610.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 43c | 515.52$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.91 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 43c | 400.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.8 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 10c | 393.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 354.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 43c | 299.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 46c | 264.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.75 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 19c | 245.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 227.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 215.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 177.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked No | 71c | 176.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 79c | 174.88$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 11c | 162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 46c | 142.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.68 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 140.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 64c | 126.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 120.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 38c | 114$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 44c | 100.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 17c | 95.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 93.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 81.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 44c | 80.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 70.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 70.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 65.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 24c | 61.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 54c | 60.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 60.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…26c3backed Yes | 63c | 58.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 57.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 37c | 56.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 53c | 56.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 51c | 49.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 47.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 60c | 41.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 40.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 61c | 37.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 35.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 52c | 34.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 33.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 47c | 32.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…b85cbacked Yes | 36c | 31.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 42c | 26.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…fd9bbacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 24.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…efdfbacked Yes | 61c | 23.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 64c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 17?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.