NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d25a2c6c3d8ec7e337e405b5b87c582baa834634af6bf184f087775ebe2c148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 20,609$9,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,892.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Under | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 48c | 3,936$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.28 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…3446backed Over | 50c | 2,499$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.31 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 50c | 960$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 948$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 673$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 41c | 288.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.06 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 45c | 273.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6f…084bbacked Under | 50c | 221.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 194.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x485e…fcb5backed Over | 58c | 193.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 36c | 156.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…272cbacked Over | 49c | 138.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…ce61backed Over | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 58c | 124$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Under | 51c | 98.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…5e9fbacked Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 50c | 38.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c2…e8a3backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…47cbbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-7.5)Hornets won
- Wizards vs. HornetsHornets won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.