NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x886242736d8cf08b70c5068b802f8140b89d9375ac16c2fa1e54cfc4fec376b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 40c | 49,127$19,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,750.84 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 60c | 33,150$19,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,260 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 59c | 9,783$5,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,966.13 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 4,714$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 4,581$2,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 53c | 2,148$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.32 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…43cfbacked Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…6bdcbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…3f64backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…c39bbacked Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Over | 60c | 1,300$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Over | 60c | 1,167$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.67 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 60c | 995$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 50c | 834$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 59c | 756.23$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.84 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 46c | 556.75$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.27 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 53c | 445.81$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.23 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 442.81$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Under | 49c | 384$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.32 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over | 55c | 338$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 53c | 322.64$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 48c | 255.37$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 220$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…729bbacked Over | 49c | 212.04$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 53c | 152.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 121.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 41c | 114$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Over | 60c | 99.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…1795backed Over | 60c | 90.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 46c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Over | 48c | 59.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…1148backed Over | 52c | 59.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 54c | 44.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 39c | 40.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Under | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 39c | 35.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Under | 53c | 30.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 54c | 28.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…1929backed Under | 54c | 28.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 25.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Over | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-7.5)Hornets won
- Wizards vs. HornetsHornets won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.