NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf79e93a26cb8fe0e0bafe941495949ed4dcb07dec9ba73d1e587e795e4bfd365
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b63…27a7backed Over | 49c | 54,000$26,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,460 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 44c | 50,000$22,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,999.94 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 56c | 25,173$14,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,097.06 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 56c | 9,890$5,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,538.4 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 56c | 7,198$4,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,030.88 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 6,596$3,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,280.72 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Under | 44c | 6,377$2,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,571.27 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 56c | 4,640$2,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.29 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 2,772$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 2,464$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over | 44c | 2,436$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.71 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 2,394$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…fd93backed Under | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd49…4b3bbacked Over | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 51c | 2,063$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.9 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Over | 45c | 1,691$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 52c | 1,490$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.08 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 56c | 900$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 803$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.53 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 57c | 539.99$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.92 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 56c | 477$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.12 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 51c | 422$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 56c | 379.09$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.29 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Under | 52c | 363$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 49c | 209.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…c7f3backed Under | 51c | 116$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 115.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 51c | 114.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Under | 44c | 95.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 56c | 93.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…f3eabacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…520cbacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…4d96backed Over | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 50c | 38.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 63c | 31.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…e241backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-7.5)Hornets won
- Wizards vs. HornetsHornets won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.