NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9532c52aedd4b99ca9cb3559b6c4ebfe5d6ca4ce3b75fd512f58ca26d12363e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 13,349$6,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,759.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 5,955$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 5,952$2,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,035.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Under | 50c | 5,400$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 3,188$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.48 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 2,795$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.4 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 1,522$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.52 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 53c | 1,399$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.38 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Over | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Over | 56c | 857.14$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 32c | 848.63$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.37 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 48c | 498.59$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 416$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 48c | 311.53$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 55c | 208.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 55c | 120.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 51c | 104.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Over | 50c | 97.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 427 | 44.5%190 W · 237 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c82…c8ccbacked Over | 53c | 56.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 52.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Over | 49c | 40.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Hornets (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-7.5)Hornets won
- Wizards vs. HornetsHornets won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.