Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d681fd2bd7a15dddcbb4e378a094bd752fb6db17503a62ae98956bddb3f1e39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 45c | 7,516$3,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,370.62 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 7,216$3,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,313.6 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 55c | 6,900$3,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 56c | 6,478$3,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,862.64 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…bb8abacked Under | 56c | 3,200$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 2,597$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.87 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 1c | 2,519$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 47c | 2,452$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,896$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.3 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 1,461$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.87 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 1,391$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.09 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 55c | 1,042$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.38 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 44c | 727.7$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.91 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 708.77$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.61 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 45c | 670.8$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.86 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 32c | 592.13$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.48 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 44c | 498.92$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.52 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 6c | 498$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Under | 49c | 489.8$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 44c | 440.8$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.95 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 56c | 396.96$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…fd3cbacked Under | 57c | 218.25$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 73c | 209.54$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 17c | 205.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 46c | 204.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 159.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 44c | 138$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 56c | 136.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 57c | 134$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 44c | 117.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 74c | 113.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 43c | 111.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 14c | 109.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…b9b2backed Over | 49c | 101.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 45c | 99.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 44c | 94.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 45c | 93.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 45c | 92.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 11c | 89.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 80.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 48c | 72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 36c | 69.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 68.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 60.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 44c | 54.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 44c | 47.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 49c | 46.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 54c | 40.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 44c | 38.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 53c | 36.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…561dbacked Over | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 46c | 33.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 66c | 27.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 44c | 25.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…4fd8backed Over | 44c | 24.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: New York City FC O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: New York City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.