Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c6e6cbb9498e9e7c6a8077449d7e94a6afa59ab0b0c048fc3ff3071cb41837
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 67c | 7,361$4,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.73 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 32c | 2,500$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 45c | 1,781$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.31 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…0e48backed Over | 67c | 1,694$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 1,467$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.47 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 68c | 1,193$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.2 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 67c | 1,041$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…808ebacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 33c | 950$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 33c | 932.41$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.7 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 33c | 919.99$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 33c | 737.15$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.26 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 7c | 696.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 60c | 691.47$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.38 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 33c | 599.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 12c | 537.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.25 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 66c | 537.08$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 33c | 490.69$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 33c | 460$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 448.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 33c | 427.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 67c | 363.29$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 52c | 357$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.36 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 47c | 283.11$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.92 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 49c | 275$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 66c | 240.61$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 35c | 214$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 187.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a0…359dbacked Over | 66c | 183.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 65c | 173$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 8c | 142.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 32c | 138$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 66c | 129.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 47c | 103.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 33c | 96.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 72c | 92.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…4078backed Under | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ff…50cbbacked Over | 73c | 72.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…b9b2backed Over | 75c | 65.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 33c | 65.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 33c | 64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 25c | 61.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Under | 34c | 58.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 52c | 52.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 67c | 46.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 33c | 46.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 71c | 43.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 33c | 37.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…fcf8backed Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 33c | 35.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…bca7backed Over | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…9b7cbacked Over | 67c | 30.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 65c | 24.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 67c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 76c | 15.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Over | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: New York City FC O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: New York City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.