TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Istanbul 2: Aliona Falei vs Yue Yuan

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aliona Faleiof Aliona Falei, Yue Yuan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,976 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yue Yuan31c20,931$6,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,540.5693740.6%380 W · 557 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x072f…ffddbacked Yue Yuan47c16,400$7,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,707.997143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Aliona Falei65c8,550$5,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.358,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Aliona Falei55c6,742$3,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,008.156,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aliona Falei50c6,667$3,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,339.8311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Aliona Falei63c5,691$3,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.978,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Aliona Falei62c4,025$2,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.852,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55fd…b51abacked Aliona Falei53c3,208$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.556446.9%30 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yue Yuan35c2,741$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.068,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Yue Yuan46c2,090$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.49760.8%59 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yue Yuan39c1,926$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.3892145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Aliona Falei48c1,650$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.663,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Aliona Falei58c1,500$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63574743.6%326 W · 421 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Aliona Falei62c1,296$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.764,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Aliona Falei60c1,283$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.324,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yue Yuan45c975.51$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.843,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yue Yuan49c933$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.174,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Aliona Falei53c842.95$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.532,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Aliona Falei47c800.18$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.29,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Yue Yuan34c764.71$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26031436.9%116 W · 198 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Aliona Falei53c716.98$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.9811435.1%40 W · 74 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Aliona Falei59c514.59$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.292,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…2ee8backed Aliona Falei21c476.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.198022.5%18 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Aliona Falei46c429.15$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.741,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed Yue Yuan51c369.1$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.1817224.4%42 W · 130 L-16.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Aliona Falei55c365.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.361,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ce8…4dd6backed Yue Yuan29c358.62$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10457950.9%295 W · 284 L+2.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Aliona Falei58c348.39$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5176355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x091a…8287backed Aliona Falei52c309.61$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.6111948.7%58 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Yue Yuan28c307.5$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.124856.9%141 W · 107 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe713…c9a0backed Aliona Falei58c300$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12711567%77 W · 38 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Yue Yuan54c284.96$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4592352.5%485 W · 438 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Yue Yuan45c273.41$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.321,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Yue Yuan55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15018258.8%107 W · 75 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cb7…3644backed Yue Yuan32c263.97$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4726451.5%136 W · 128 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed Yue Yuan43c231.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10079646%366 W · 430 L+1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Aliona Falei58c211.62$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3987741.3%362 W · 515 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe839…0a9dbacked Aliona Falei56c210$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.439157.8%226 W · 165 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9340…e829backed Aliona Falei49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.084247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Yue Yuan43c202.29$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.941,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a99…d29fbacked Yue Yuan48c202.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9730642.2%129 W · 177 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Aliona Falei51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…b4a5backed Aliona Falei62c198.58$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5854955.2%303 W · 246 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Aliona Falei55c189.09$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.092,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Yue Yuan50c165$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9552739.3%207 W · 320 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x588b…ed16backed Yue Yuan46c160.44$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.235657.1%32 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Yue Yuan49c158.56$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1782958.1%482 W · 347 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yue Yuan79c154.21$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.184,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5940…94c8backed Yue Yuan54c146.13$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.517930.4%24 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Yue Yuan52c144.14$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.421,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Yue Yuan29c137.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yue Yuan48c128$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.445,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Yue Yuan31c126.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3226746.1%123 W · 144 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yue Yuan46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.26,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Aliona Falei41c115.2$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8239851%203 W · 195 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf753…bcfebacked Aliona Falei40c103.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9253736.9%198 W · 339 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889d…d981backed Yue Yuan49c102.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x663e…9cf0backed Yue Yuan31c101.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9925237.3%94 W · 158 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e7…84e9backed Yue Yuan35c97.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9822638.9%88 W · 138 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Aliona Falei21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2488935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Yue Yuan32c94.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3043444.9%195 W · 239 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Aliona Falei55c92.73$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.733,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Aliona Falei55c92.73$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.733,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Yue Yuan36c92.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.864,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Aliona Falei55c81.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.821,35638.3%520 W · 836 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Aliona Falei37c77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3297852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Aliona Falei41c75.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6432333.7%109 W · 214 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Aliona Falei40c72.27$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.044,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Aliona Falei26c65.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.781,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eef…5275backed Yue Yuan77c64.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0236378.2%284 W · 79 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick77cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8920…9c0cbacked Yue Yuan35c55.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5829347.4%139 W · 154 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Yue Yuan80c50.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0223581.7%192 W · 43 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick80cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Aliona Falei47c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yue Yuan34c48.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.651,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250f…4fc6backed Yue Yuan43c48.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8217131.6%54 W · 117 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Aliona Falei23c48.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.146,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56d…3658backed Aliona Falei46c47.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.515950.3%80 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Yue Yuan43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2044952.8%237 W · 212 L+1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Aliona Falei42c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.981,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Yue Yuan52c45.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5633062.7%207 W · 123 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Aliona Falei55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.451,00838.3%386 W · 622 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf768…7831backed Aliona Falei66c45.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5478957.8%456 W · 333 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Yue Yuan53c44.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8416755.7%93 W · 74 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Aliona Falei62c44.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.778282.9%68 W · 14 L+10.1wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+18.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Yue Yuan46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.439751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Aliona Falei50c37.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.931,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x542c…ed1cbacked Yue Yuan64c36.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.567068.6%48 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Aliona Falei52c34.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.832,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Aliona Falei62c33.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6948152%250 W · 231 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Yue Yuan40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1244229.6%131 W · 311 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Yue Yuan51c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.242,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Aliona Falei49c25.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1527363.4%173 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Yue Yuan59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e20…5cf9backed Aliona Falei63c22.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1735555.5%197 W · 158 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Aliona Falei66c22.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.511,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yue Yuan55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Yue Yuan55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1139451.3%202 W · 192 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yue Yuan55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,17552.9%622 W · 553 L+2.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Yue Yuan55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yue Yuan55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.