Golf · resolved market

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 The Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2db2daa3efb4d356f04710a5a7ffe4252b1c109462a5cda237b5389babc815db

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $109,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,988 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaa7b…0c1abacked Yes	6c	13,106$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.25	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d5…d1bbbacked Yes	0c	10,024$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes	6c	10,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Yes	6c	7,972$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes	2c	3,526$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.89	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-93%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcc87…521abacked Yes	6c	3,390$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+152.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes	3c	3,218$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.33	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5174…4fa3backed Yes	5c	2,932$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.32	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cb…ad46backed Yes	6c	2,840$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+87.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f1…91bdbacked Yes	6c	2,774$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Yes	2c	2,167$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e0c…832dbacked Yes	6c	2,094$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	5c	2,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	-8.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9720…afa4backed Yes	5c	2,000$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-87.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Yes	6c	1,025$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.48	75	29.3%22 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes	5c	1,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes	2c	800$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	28cpaid	+78.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	752.31$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.44	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb1…a0ebbacked Yes	6c	700$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.3	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e68…682abacked Yes	6c	508.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x247f…006dbacked Yes	5c	454.55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c95…7ca6backed Yes	6c	381.81$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d46…dcd1backed Yes	5c	367.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bd5…a3ccbacked Yes	6c	347$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.53	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x165d…121cbacked Yes	6c	344.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cef…67c3backed Yes	6c	338.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ee…446cbacked Yes	6c	313.9$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.52	51	5.9%3 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked Yes	6c	309.09$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e6…6400backed Yes	7c	293.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1874…594fbacked Yes	4c	282.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa5…3be4backed Yes	6c	231.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	5c	222.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf86f…1660backed Yes	6c	176.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25c7…9179backed Yes	7c	174.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 The Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event