Golf · resolved market

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 The Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae744540f26e0067d9ac3d83484b85e814a9a604f3c62d2f94000e343d11930

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $130,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $96,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,725 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	8c	13,600$1,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,082.29	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabea…72aebacked Yes	4c	11,312$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.37	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+288.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes	5c	9,729$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.65	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes	8c	9,571$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1158…0dc0backed Yes	6c	5,179$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes	9c	5,009$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.16	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes	4c	3,526$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.14	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-93%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb143…cadebacked Yes	5c	2,900$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.6	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes	5c	2,580$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.65	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x929a…a3d8backed Yes	6c	2,572$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8966…1e9fbacked Yes	4c	1,973$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4a69…0a8fbacked Yes	5c	1,967$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c95…10f5backed Yes	6c	1,800$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Yes	3c	1,506$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.66	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	4c	1,403$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.48	116	8.6%10 W · 106 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	3c	1,247$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.48	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes	6c	1,071$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.4	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Yes	5c	1,053$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9403…cd0ebacked Yes	5c	1,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e87…28d9backed Yes	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.57	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes	8c	880.52$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	70	40%28 W · 42 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-29%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82fb…0b6ebacked Yes	5c	850$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.75	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcac…6621backed Yes	12c	831$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd25…4042backed Yes	4c	813.49$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	5cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55fd…2c99backed Yes	6c	793.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-62%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x428b…5b25backed Yes	8c	759.87$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+88.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Yes	7c	696.02$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.32	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes	5c	630.91$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes	7c	581.63$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	6cpaid	+364.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes	7c	507.82$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.4	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4baa…d1fcbacked Yes	5c	506.94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaed6…c4a8backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	7c	495.52$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.57	74	6.8%5 W · 69 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9720…afa4backed Yes	5c	462.46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-87.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7803…c9afbacked Yes	7c	461.16$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ee…446cbacked Yes	3c	435.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	51	5.9%3 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9769…7cd7backed Yes	6c	383.5$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.16	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes	5c	370$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-74%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	6c	363.86$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.46	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed Yes	4c	333$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3da…0088backed Yes	7c	332$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0baf…5bbdbacked Yes	7c	329$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e6…6400backed Yes	7c	294.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes	5c	286.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc06b…ab62backed Yes	7c	261.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb69…361ebacked Yes	5c	259.26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaaf…f9e0backed Yes	8c	253.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes	5c	252.28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x867c…cf4ebacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e3…daf8backed Yes	6c	241.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984d…2a3ebacked Yes	6c	231.22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf1…ac4ebacked Yes	5c	223.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes	7c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c95…7ca6backed Yes	17c	113.13$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12a…0cabbacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 The Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event