Golf · resolved market

Will Lucas Herbert win the 2026 The Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b95093aac811c9d52a7b56ada07cfdc667fc83c1201e07540b5d63e07b21529

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $66,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,061 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2b46…684dbacked Yes	2c	18,030$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.54	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+296.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc18b…2624backed Yes	5c	4,000$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	25	4%1 W · 24 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes	9c	3,490$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	1c	2,795$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.57	116	8.6%10 W · 106 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9403…cd0ebacked Yes	4c	2,450$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.65	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66df…9811backed Yes	5c	2,424$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	81	18.5%15 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes	2c	2,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	8c	1,500$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.9	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	-8.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc438…3ae6backed Yes	5c	1,333$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee5e…e619backed Yes	10c	992.46$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.67	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes	7c	824.68$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.54	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	3c	611.05$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.01	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c7…9179backed Yes	4c	586.14$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.79	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	7c	563.6$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.69	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb53f…a5cebacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Yes	10c	426.93$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.94	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x867c…cf4ebacked Yes	7c	367.65$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.56	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd62…5bb3backed Yes	4c	362.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd5…a3ccbacked Yes	4c	355$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ff…c62cbacked Yes	6c	341.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Yes	4c	323.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-87.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	9c	273.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.56	74	6.8%5 W · 69 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac50…d728backed Yes	9c	266.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a6…456cbacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0baf…5bbdbacked Yes	9c	249.02$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.41	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed Yes	5c	222$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	6c	188.9$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	84	29.8%25 W · 59 L	-7.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf194…09ccbacked Yes	11c	103.72$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d9…f89bbacked Yes	16c	99.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lucas Herbert win the 2026 The Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event