Golf · resolved market

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 The Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe27079847922c5a02b329348e34d0411ee335d11bba4669653179bdf0dfffeac

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $108,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,031 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa080…234fbacked Yes	4c	36,208$1,383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,382.7	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes	3c	21,205$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.55	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+174.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes	2c	10,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-87.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes	3c	6,547$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.45	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf807…c5dcbacked Yes	12c	4,191$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.11	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc693…72dbbacked Yes	3c	3,978$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd8…4ed3backed Yes	5c	3,381$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.84	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-93%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	4c	2,311$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.37	116	8.6%10 W · 106 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Yes	3c	1,664$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Yes	2c	1,432$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.97	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb1…a0ebbacked Yes	5c	1,390$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.31	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes	3c	1,297$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.43	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes	3c	1,065$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.96	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9403…cd0ebacked Yes	5c	945.43$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.2	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x247f…006dbacked Yes	3c	943.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Yes	10c	903$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55fd…2c99backed Yes	3c	871.79$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-62%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed Yes	10c	665.29$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.59	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66df…9811backed Yes	2c	524$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	81	18.5%15 W · 66 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Yes	11c	500$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.92	75	29.3%22 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2601…61a9backed Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes	9c	325.86$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.68	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	302.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.89	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes	7c	289$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82c2…2bb3backed Yes	7c	139.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea15…8738backed Yes	10c	139.01$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 The Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event