TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fnaticof Natus Vincere, Fnatic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$483,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$555,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 408 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x671f…328cbacked Natus Vincere46c70,418$32,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,174.966040%24 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Fnatic54c55,514$30,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,416.6627735.7%99 W · 178 L-12.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ac…88c9backed Fnatic48c25,671$12,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,397.743551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Fnatic59c16,471$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,721.41,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1307…d640backed Fnatic55c13,636$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,136.367345.2%33 W · 40 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Fnatic51c10,033$5,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,937.9521448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Fnatic32c10,002$3,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,837.081,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Natus Vincere49c10,000$4,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,934.7713453.7%72 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Fnatic55c10,000$5,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,549.9941644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Fnatic58c9,222$5,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,874.6548157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Natus Vincere1c8,700$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1629927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Natus Vincere14c8,468$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.6722234.7%77 W · 145 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Fnatic49c8,169$3,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,181.8631644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x757b…7f5abacked Natus Vincere69c6,557$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,514.141346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked Fnatic50c6,295$3,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,154.4411658.6%68 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Fnatic18c5,958$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,893.2485442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Natus Vincere43c5,876$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.6223351.1%119 W · 114 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Fnatic59c5,171$3,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,123.7421740.1%87 W · 130 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Fnatic52c5,046$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.5425923.2%60 W · 199 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Natus Vincere65c5,013$3,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.211,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c7a…7bafbacked Natus Vincere40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Fnatic54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9823547.7%112 W · 123 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere55c4,767$2,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,624.3469041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Fnatic65c4,325$2,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.3870162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Fnatic63c3,897$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.791,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Natus Vincere40c3,491$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.467735.1%27 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fnatic56c3,319$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.5485046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Fnatic3c3,114$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,006.687869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Fnatic57c2,781$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.6527346.9%128 W · 145 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere65c2,673$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.1170443.9%309 W · 395 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4283…a997backed Fnatic5c2,574$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,456.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+230%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed Natus Vincere52c2,552$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.9818741.2%77 W · 110 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9af9…eba7backed Natus Vincere70c2,468$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.281241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Fnatic12c2,400$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.9713444.8%60 W · 74 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere42c2,382$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.141,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec9a…ad34backed Fnatic8c2,356$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.7712137.2%45 W · 76 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Natus Vincere43c2,287$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.6714757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb763…247dbacked Fnatic52c2,187$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.072060%12 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+62.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Fnatic56c2,134$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.964055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Natus Vincere68c2,001$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.6822547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Fnatic54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92034837.4%130 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed Fnatic55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90014753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc87e…2e3bbacked Fnatic60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Fnatic55c2,000$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.993,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Fnatic56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.9835243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Natus Vincere3c1,990$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5529143.3%126 W · 165 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Fnatic6c1,849$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.971,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Natus Vincere59c1,829$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.781,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Fnatic55c1,826$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.6451852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Natus Vincere9c1,803$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8945618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b3…a28dbacked Natus Vincere56c1,680$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.3818065%117 W · 63 L+0.5wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Natus Vincere34c1,667$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.8282352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Natus Vincere44c1,600$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.9277131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Natus Vincere78c1,554$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.7119946.7%93 W · 106 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df0…96a6backed Fnatic40c1,531$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.6610761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd837…85d2backed Fnatic75c1,503$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Natus Vincere55c1,500$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82663161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a49…ca09backed Fnatic60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70bf…b0b2backed Fnatic60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Fnatic57c1,483$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.4619146.1%88 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984f…b08dbacked Fnatic39c1,419$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.791931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Fnatic65c1,416$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.1144843.8%196 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Natus Vincere56c1,375$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.3426940.5%109 W · 160 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2489…60f1backed Fnatic4c1,315$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.896740.3%27 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f70…123dbacked Natus Vincere52c1,296$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.7411830.5%36 W · 82 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ce…2054backed Natus Vincere73c1,265$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+9.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Natus Vincere47c1,220$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.911,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Fnatic48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62411150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Natus Vincere50c1,121$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56115536.8%57 W · 98 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00df…0d23backed Natus Vincere51c1,120$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.199852%51 W · 47 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Fnatic55c1,091$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.9132345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Natus Vincere66c1,090$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.451,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Fnatic11c1,071$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.4666116.5%109 W · 552 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere53c1,044$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.6475342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked Natus Vincere53c1,039$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55326245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Natus Vincere53c1,039$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.751,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3d1…6f1abacked Natus Vincere2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed Fnatic54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46012839.8%51 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d5…59cebacked Natus Vincere1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Fnatic55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed Natus Vincere62c972.14$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.6924436.9%90 W · 154 L-18.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Natus Vincere54c900$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48611936.1%43 W · 76 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Natus Vincere50c900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45050547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Fnatic20c900$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72142148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Natus Vincere42c899.92$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.97650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed Natus Vincere45c881.78$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40035035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Fnatic57c880$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.415545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Fnatic67c864.19$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.464860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd0…389fbacked Fnatic58c853.45$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.45955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere47c834.48$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39243640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Natus Vincere40c825.11$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.0476953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fnatic43c823.9$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.652,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Fnatic2c812.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.331,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1e3…358ebacked Natus Vincere51c799.98$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.997647.4%36 W · 40 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-28.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d8a…9dcebacked Natus Vincere50c792.4$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Natus Vincere47c744.68$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3507143.7%31 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Fnatic56c717.53$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.5343151.3%221 W · 210 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Fnatic56c704.52$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.993046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Fnatic55c703.22$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.141,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere44c700$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3081,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.