Music · resolved market
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df9579e9f470fc5bfcd0e70c387f013c6acc94457fdbd256835225f79626f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b64…b53dbacked Yes | 28c | 479.15$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 30c | 382.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed Yes | 30c | 341.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 224$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c355backed Yes | 15c | 194.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 70c | 157.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 143.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 124.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 71c | 116.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 68c | 97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked No | 70c | 96.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 90.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 68.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 66.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 68c | 54.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 50.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…c13cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 62c | 27.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 68c | 25.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 71c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 71c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.