Music · resolved market
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc19aadc5357ef0d8f54c25f573145074b9a00da9f7b3e65f8c02656b534a0f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,313$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 10c | 626$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 8c | 473.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 63c | 307$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 69c | 306.28$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…f0b0backed No | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 228.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…0767backed Yes | 66c | 227$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 10c | 222.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed No | 33c | 171.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 154.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 32c | 127.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 126.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 120.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 31c | 116.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 32c | 111.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 69c | 111.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 70c | 108$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 17c | 104.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…f1c9backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 30c | 76.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 68.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +525%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…e0e3backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…b29ebacked Yes | 69c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…a884backed Yes | 70c | 42.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 30c | 42.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…d1a1backed No | 30c | 42.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 35c | 35.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 35c | 34.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.