NBA · resolved market
Paul George: Points O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ff4d1cbb039e2c584f624f6d23d4d015a446a39fb263da2d3e618446b2357fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880b…c98bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,284$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.42 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 58c | 513.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.5 | 337 | 49.3%166 W · 171 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed No | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 33c | 434.33$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 42c | 399.97$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 59c | 187.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes | 74c | 133.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 41c | 132.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No | 41c | 132.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 32c | 131.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 39c | 102.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 29c | 54.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…e0edbacked Yes | 67c | 37.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed Yes | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…44d3backed Yes | 58c | 30.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 284 | 55.3%157 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Yes | 58c | 30.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 42c | 29.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 41c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Yes | 68c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked No | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…6eafbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paul George: Points O/U 14.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)76ers won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5)76ers won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5)76ers won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-6.5)76ers won
- 76ers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5Under won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Paul George: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Paul George: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)76ers won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)76ers won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)76ers won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.