NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x300cf9707b78ba573709b8c3e9932e6510be18f241512dd3b149ce636faa9705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Grizzlies | 53c | 35,343$18,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,731.8 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Knicks | 47c | 19,895$9,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,544.15 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Knicks | 48c | 10,496$5,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,482.18 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Knicks | 47c | 4,295$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.35 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Grizzlies | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Grizzlies | 53c | 3,700$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 47c | 3,149$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 2,214$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.07 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 52c | 2,095$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.23 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Knicks | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Knicks | 46c | 1,605$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.7 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Knicks | 47c | 1,600$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 1,406$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks | 47c | 1,323$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies | 52c | 1,211$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.18 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Knicks | 47c | 1,094$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.82 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 52c | 1,043$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.09 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Knicks | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.7 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Knicks | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Knicks | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…95ffbacked Knicks | 44c | 899.99$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 720.85$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.05 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies | 53c | 697$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.46 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks | 47c | 650$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Knicks | 47c | 561.4$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.54 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Knicks | 50c | 550$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Knicks | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Grizzlies | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Grizzlies | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Knicks | 47c | 397$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.41 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Grizzlies | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 168 | 53%89 W · 79 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Grizzlies | 54c | 232.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…b610backed Knicks | 47c | 212.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Knicks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Knicks | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Knicks | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Knicks | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…861dbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…391dbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Knicks | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 679 | 49.8%338 W · 341 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e898backed Grizzlies | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Grizzlies vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.