NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf6fbc001d490429670f15277437feab562571f2b46b02b682bc6b8f5c35cab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Over | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,349.99 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 49c | 11,216$5,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,495.99 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,557$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 50c | 2,449$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.5 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 1,647$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.25 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Over | 52c | 1,417$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.26 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…447cbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 49c | 989$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.39 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 788$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.12 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 602$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.02 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 52c | 505.77$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.75 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 55c | 444$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 410$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 387$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Under | 54c | 232$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…287ebacked Over | 46c | 231.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…f1ecbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 50c | 204.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 187$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 48c | 159.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 49c | 130.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 47c | 63.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Grizzlies vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.