Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a50169677adcad881bd0b9a779ca0bde40c7f1f2ce94e1cc82965da036d0f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Mochizuki, Tsitsipas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x155d…2525backed Mochizuki | 21c | 5,171$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d4…dbd6backed Mochizuki | 22c | 4,534$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 332 | 56%186 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Mochizuki | 16c | 4,448$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Tsitsipas | 79c | 3,984$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.93 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Mochizuki | 20c | 3,537$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.9 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Mochizuki | 16c | 3,000$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.44 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…079fbacked Tsitsipas | 77c | 2,597$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Mochizuki | 23c | 2,203$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Mochizuki | 15c | 1,858$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.62 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Mochizuki | 21c | 1,748$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.8 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Mochizuki | 12c | 1,660$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Mochizuki | 22c | 1,595$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.47 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Mochizuki | 18c | 1,354$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.71 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Mochizuki | 21c | 1,224$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.02 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Mochizuki | 11c | 1,144$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Mochizuki | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Mochizuki | 22c | 999.09$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Mochizuki | 19c | 770.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Mochizuki | 21c | 719.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…a5fbbacked Tsitsipas | 79c | 695.51$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Mochizuki | 14c | 693.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tsitsipas | 77c | 682.15$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Mochizuki | 14c | 620$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Mochizuki | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…d663backed Mochizuki | 13c | 547.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Mochizuki | 18c | 477.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Mochizuki | 19c | 433.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Mochizuki | 24c | 418.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Tsitsipas | 79c | 391.26$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Tsitsipas | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mochizuki | 12c | 375$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Mochizuki | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mochizuki | 15c | 336.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Mochizuki | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…dd5ebacked Mochizuki | 24c | 328.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Mochizuki | 9c | 299.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Mochizuki | 7c | 299.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Tsitsipas | 80c | 279.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 398 | 44.2%176 W · 222 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Tsitsipas | 78c | 279.8$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Mochizuki | 12c | 264$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…c3e1backed Mochizuki | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ea31backed Mochizuki | 21c | 187.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mochizuki | 14c | 155.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mochizuki | 18c | 152.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Mochizuki | 8c | 152.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc8…4d6fbacked Mochizuki | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f28…4c34backed Mochizuki | 27c | 149.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Mochizuki | 8c | 137.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Mochizuki | 20c | 126$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…a964backed Mochizuki | 8c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Mochizuki | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Mochizuki | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Mochizuki | 11c | 106.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Mochizuki | 13c | 98.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Mochizuki | 13c | 96.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Mochizuki | 18c | 96.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…b02fbacked Mochizuki | 23c | 87.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Mochizuki | 23c | 87.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…0e20backed Mochizuki | 25c | 87.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Mochizuki | 22c | 76.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mochizuki | 14c | 74.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Tsitsipas | 79c | 71.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mochizuki | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Tsitsipas | 79c | 64.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…ee98backed Mochizuki | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…963bbacked Tsitsipas | 80c | 50.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…3f2dbacked Tsitsipas | 76c | 47.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Tsitsipas | 79c | 43.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Tsitsipas | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Tsitsipas | 79c | 23.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed Tsitsipas | 79c | 21.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Tsitsipas | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 179 | 59.8%107 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048b…cdb5backed Tsitsipas | 72c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…9129backed Tsitsipas | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Stefanos Tsitsipasthis page
- Mochizuki vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Mochizuki vs. Tsitsipas: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Mochizuki vs. Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Mochizuki vs TsitsipasMochizuki won
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5)Tsitsipas won
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-2.5) vs Mochizuki (+2.5)Mochizuki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.