MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32976a59bf174a67462ef85ea4fad8615acdda097d3cf93974523b09edb0da82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed New York Yankees | 54c | 20,054$10,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,829.03 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…dcafbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 9,988$4,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,393.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 8,371$4,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,352.92 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 7,976$3,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,306.99 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed New York Yankees | 53c | 4,490$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.92 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 3,681$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.74 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked New York Yankees | 52c | 2,659$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.99 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 2,024$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.3 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked New York Yankees | 59c | 2,020$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c3…cd63backed New York Yankees | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 1,870$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.8 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 1,050$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed New York Yankees | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 736.21$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.65 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 719.32$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.97 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked New York Yankees | 53c | 616$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.48 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed New York Yankees | 25c | 600$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 586.31$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.31 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 572.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed New York Yankees | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed New York Yankees | 53c | 499.87$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.93 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked New York Yankees | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed New York Yankees | 6c | 324.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 291$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 202.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed New York Yankees | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Yankees | 55c | 180.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 180.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed New York Yankees | 53c | 107.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 103.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Yankees | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed New York Yankees | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked New York Yankees | 52c | 84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…cb52backed New York Yankees | 53c | 82.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed New York Yankees | 53c | 65.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 64.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed New York Yankees | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 47.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed New York Yankees | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 46.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked New York Yankees | 52c | 45.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Yankees | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed New York Yankees | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…523fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 34.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed New York Yankees | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 28.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.