Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x332bee923805da49fc0133047a2a08191d074332950467c22f954fde31e16696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof PARIVISION, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked PARIVISION | 45c | 21,605$9,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,784.88 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed PARIVISION | 45c | 16,636$7,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,485.11 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 52c | 11,491$5,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,514.49 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 55c | 6,909$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,109.09 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed PARIVISION | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Aurora | 55c | 5,455$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.55 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f9…6910backed PARIVISION | 50c | 4,559$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.56 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 56c | 3,569$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.11 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION | 45c | 3,362$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.64 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Aurora | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 56c | 3,000$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.62 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 70c | 2,994$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.62 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 55c | 2,850$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.01 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed PARIVISION | 50c | 2,841$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.34 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora | 53c | 2,636$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.32 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 58c | 2,568$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.32 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Aurora | 52c | 2,220$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.6 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Aurora | 54c | 2,214$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.06 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed PARIVISION | 37c | 2,187$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.97 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 56c | 2,021$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.79 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Aurora | 57c | 1,744$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.59 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…9728backed Aurora | 57c | 1,330$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Aurora | 53c | 1,200$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Aurora | 53c | 967.92$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.92 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION | 44c | 958.76$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.63 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed PARIVISION | 46c | 925$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora | 50c | 717.2$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.6 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcf…9f7dbacked Aurora | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed PARIVISION | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…d45fbacked PARIVISION | 26c | 600$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…ec03backed PARIVISION | 35c | 571.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked PARIVISION | 45c | 521.34$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.6 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION | 40c | 517.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.49 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked PARIVISION | 48c | 468.24$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.6 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Aurora | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 53c | 402.89$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.38 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 54c | 360$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION | 50c | 349.37$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.47 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed PARIVISION | 46c | 326.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed PARIVISION | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked PARIVISION | 8c | 299.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4605…5299backed PARIVISION | 26c | 221.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION | 49c | 203.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked PARIVISION | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed PARIVISION | 35c | 190.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…12d2backed Aurora | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed Aurora | 53c | 188.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 45c | 175.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora | 60c | 165.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Aurora | 53c | 163.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…4d37backed PARIVISION | 33c | 152.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Aurora | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Aurora | 52c | 143.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf94…6ee5backed Aurora | 51c | 138.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…b787backed Aurora | 65c | 138.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…4134backed PARIVISION | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Aurora | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…133dbacked PARIVISION | 42c | 119$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…ed23backed PARIVISION | 48c | 114.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed PARIVISION | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…6c31backed Aurora | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Aurora | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…7d48backed Aurora | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…67a6backed PARIVISION | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed PARIVISION | 49c | 92.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed Aurora | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Aurora | 63c | 85.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed PARIVISION | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora | 69c | 78.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Aurora | 51c | 72.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed PARIVISION | 50c | 67.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked PARIVISION | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 55c | 60.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34e…c0f4backed PARIVISION | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…1208backed Aurora | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked PARIVISION | 33c | 59.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed PARIVISION | 45c | 59.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked PARIVISION | 53c | 56.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…36e9backed Aurora | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed PARIVISION | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION | 35c | 51.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Aurora | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed PARIVISION | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d643backed PARIVISION | 44c | 45.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Aurora | 62c | 41.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…1a70backed PARIVISION | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Aurora | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed PARIVISION | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Aurora | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c26…affabacked Aurora | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.