TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$103,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora54c15,396$8,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,257.833746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed PARIVISION52c7,077$3,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,406.6647660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Aurora49c6,500$3,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,184.9910445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked PARIVISION65c5,903$3,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.2755157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora2c5,030$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.180443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed PARIVISION47c4,817$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.5620949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Aurora56c4,670$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,606.8812851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Aurora55c4,030$2,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.499557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora49c3,973$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.8442650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION50c3,691$1,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.5996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION45c2,844$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.711,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION45c2,618$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.521,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed PARIVISION47c2,572$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.621,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Aurora58c2,421$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40018156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed PARIVISION51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7811359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed PARIVISION49c1,484$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.8858744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora51c1,359$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.1831545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked PARIVISION49c1,359$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.1825549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked PARIVISION51c1,241$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.115829.3%17 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfcf…9f7dbacked Aurora58c1,208$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Aurora1c1,200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed PARIVISION49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51016142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed PARIVISION54c929.74$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.748648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed PARIVISION45c888.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.899959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Aurora51c756.96$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.0526957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora54c738.01$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.8557455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked PARIVISION45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6753844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed PARIVISION50c543.97$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.691,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Aurora50c535.56$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.7862650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed PARIVISION44c529.55$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.5528549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…89d0backed Aurora51c525$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.254967.3%33 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked PARIVISION51c490.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.28854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora41c490.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed PARIVISION65c463.08$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0821264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora49c459.63$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2229548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed PARIVISION68c437$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.3161548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed PARIVISION45c433.33$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.3326453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed PARIVISION51c392.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.4554445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Aurora47c386.72$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.7348352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed PARIVISION50c368.57$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.2913455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora55c364.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20041655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION48c334.97$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.5880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora51c323.27$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.951,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16256848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Aurora50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15067853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora54c298.98$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.588461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Aurora58c281$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1815131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora53c213.08$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0734154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b0e…eca9backed PARIVISION49c204.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.154461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION44c202.58$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.482,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b2…b787backed Aurora50c200$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed PARIVISION47c195$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8814453.5%77 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc155…d550backed Aurora56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed PARIVISION51c170.19$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f72…adc6backed PARIVISION57c154.98$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.063066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Aurora56c150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8419443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Aurora35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.520530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78db…4d37backed PARIVISION57c139.91$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.166944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION48c125.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4661057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed PARIVISION54c118.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3134063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed PARIVISION44c118.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1813449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x899e…0863backed Aurora17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026454.5%144 W · 120 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92e4…36e9backed Aurora54c111.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Aurora44c110$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.31,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Aurora53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5322954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Aurora49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495044%22 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Aurora48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4897142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed PARIVISION50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5018444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PARIVISION48c91.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.532,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked PARIVISION51c88.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2458152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefff…2d98backed PARIVISION46c81.26$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0616445.7%75 W · 89 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.279343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Aurora49c79.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.24546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0030…04e9backed Aurora27c77.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2134152.2%178 W · 163 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Aurora53c70.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5650855.5%282 W · 226 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb759…ed73backed Aurora53c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.110049%49 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked Aurora55c66.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3124052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Aurora50c63.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.855552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9718…dd82backed Aurora16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108636%31 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora54c61.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0633549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed PARIVISION46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.447951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe34e…c0f4backed PARIVISION51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.46547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora44c57.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.312,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccaf…3d09backed Aurora23c57.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Aurora55c56.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.676550.8%33 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora50c55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.552243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c0…23d8backed Aurora53c52.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0723957.3%137 W · 102 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe866…1a70backed PARIVISION50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2511057.3%63 W · 47 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked PARIVISION46c49.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9939351.1%201 W · 192 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked PARIVISION67c49.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2522654.4%123 W · 103 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ba…9fecbacked PARIVISION49c45.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1410546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec46…072dbacked PARIVISION45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed Aurora51c43.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.636051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5524…2f3cbacked Aurora49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206844.1%30 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Aurora50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.923040%12 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Aurora53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.212449.2%61 W · 63 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209f…0eb4backed Aurora48c39.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d4…b96cbacked PARIVISION50c34.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.487048.6%34 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75b1…9b98backed PARIVISION54c34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d2…b34bbacked Aurora46c34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.