Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x797c7134683db9228219230a37f1b82b7fcc8ebbdc107df6462d897090b43c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 54c | 15,396$8,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,257.8 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed PARIVISION | 52c | 7,077$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,406.66 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Aurora | 49c | 6,500$3,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,184.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked PARIVISION | 65c | 5,903$3,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.27 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 2c | 5,030$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed PARIVISION | 47c | 4,817$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.56 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Aurora | 56c | 4,670$2,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,606.88 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Aurora | 55c | 4,030$2,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.49 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 49c | 3,973$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.84 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION | 50c | 3,691$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.59 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION | 45c | 2,844$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.71 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION | 45c | 2,618$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.52 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed PARIVISION | 47c | 2,572$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.62 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Aurora | 58c | 2,421$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed PARIVISION | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed PARIVISION | 49c | 1,484$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.88 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora | 51c | 1,359$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.18 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 1,359$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.18 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…eb8ebacked PARIVISION | 51c | 1,241$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.11 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcf…9f7dbacked Aurora | 58c | 1,208$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Aurora | 1c | 1,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed PARIVISION | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed PARIVISION | 54c | 929.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.74 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed PARIVISION | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.89 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Aurora | 51c | 756.96$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.05 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 54c | 738.01$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.85 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked PARIVISION | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed PARIVISION | 50c | 543.97$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.69 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Aurora | 50c | 535.56$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.78 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed PARIVISION | 44c | 529.55$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.55 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Aurora | 51c | 525$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.25 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked PARIVISION | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 41c | 490.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed PARIVISION | 65c | 463.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.08 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora | 49c | 459.63$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.22 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed PARIVISION | 68c | 437$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.31 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed PARIVISION | 45c | 433.33$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.33 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed PARIVISION | 51c | 392.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.45 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Aurora | 47c | 386.72$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.73 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed PARIVISION | 50c | 368.57$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.29 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora | 55c | 364.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION | 48c | 334.97$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.58 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 51c | 323.27$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.95 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora | 54c | 298.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.58 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Aurora | 58c | 281$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.18 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 53c | 213.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed PARIVISION | 49c | 204.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION | 44c | 202.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…b787backed Aurora | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed PARIVISION | 47c | 195$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…d550backed Aurora | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed PARIVISION | 51c | 170.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f72…adc6backed PARIVISION | 57c | 154.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Aurora | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Aurora | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…4d37backed PARIVISION | 57c | 139.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION | 48c | 125.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed PARIVISION | 54c | 118.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed PARIVISION | 44c | 118.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Aurora | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…36e9backed Aurora | 54c | 111.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Aurora | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed PARIVISION | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PARIVISION | 48c | 91.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked PARIVISION | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed PARIVISION | 46c | 81.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Aurora | 49c | 79.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Aurora | 27c | 77.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Aurora | 53c | 70.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed Aurora | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked Aurora | 55c | 66.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Aurora | 50c | 63.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Aurora | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora | 54c | 61.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed PARIVISION | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34e…c0f4backed PARIVISION | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 44c | 57.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaf…3d09backed Aurora | 23c | 57.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Aurora | 55c | 56.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Aurora | 53c | 52.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…1a70backed PARIVISION | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked PARIVISION | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked PARIVISION | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…9fecbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 45.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…072dbacked PARIVISION | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Aurora | 51c | 43.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5524…2f3cbacked Aurora | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Aurora | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Aurora | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…0eb4backed Aurora | 48c | 39.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…b96cbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 34.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9b98backed PARIVISION | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked Aurora | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.