NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b2b38b4e361a288598560e9f5294da5960e90eaabfd3588b70a7c31b382fb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 43c | 8,108$3,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,609.37 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Mavericks | 55c | 6,531$3,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,592 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Nuggets | 45c | 4,624$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.05 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 55c | 3,923$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 57c | 3,340$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.25 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 45c | 3,300$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 51c | 2,873$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd7…ed94backed Mavericks | 53c | 2,866$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets | 45c | 2,657$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.61 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f37…23cebacked Nuggets | 47c | 2,333$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…08c1backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,277$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…b644backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,250$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9504…0321backed Mavericks | 53c | 2,247$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…e84dbacked Mavericks | 53c | 2,126$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…b9f8backed Mavericks | 53c | 2,033$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…727bbacked Nuggets | 47c | 2,011$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Nuggets | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…9a72backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,998$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f93…c1c3backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,994$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Mavericks | 57c | 1,911$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.03 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…0459backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,855$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b4…89aabacked Mavericks | 53c | 1,800$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 42c | 1,780$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.4 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb2…4db8backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,736$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…db0fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 1,652$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef6…9e33backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,625$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…274abacked Mavericks | 53c | 1,477$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3239…434ebacked Mavericks | 52c | 1,435$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 44c | 1,383$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.77 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7e…a24abacked Nuggets | 48c | 1,354$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks | 56c | 1,280$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.4 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…6818backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,255$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12a…9da0backed Mavericks | 52c | 1,254$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x894d…7a18backed Nuggets | 48c | 1,234$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6913…2a4cbacked Nuggets | 47c | 1,202$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1af…ec42backed Nuggets | 48c | 1,152$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…240fbacked Nuggets | 48c | 1,147$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…3483backed Mavericks | 52c | 1,134$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…8aeabacked Nuggets | 47c | 1,121$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf32…7e52backed Mavericks | 53c | 1,068$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…1bbabacked Mavericks | 52c | 1,064$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…9ad1backed Nuggets | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Mavericks | 55c | 790.81$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Nuggets | 43c | 550.54$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.3 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Nuggets | 45c | 523.1$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.92 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Mavericks | 58c | 431$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Mavericks | 53c | 358$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.74 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Nuggets | 47c | 223.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Nuggets | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Nuggets | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934b…33bebacked Mavericks | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…6229backed Nuggets | 44c | 158.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…ed5cbacked Mavericks | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Mavericks | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…ed58backed Nuggets | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 262 | 46.6%122 W · 140 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Mavericks | 57c | 109$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Mavericks | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 59c | 93.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…d0abbacked Mavericks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Nuggets | 47c | 72.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Nuggets | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 42c | 56.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Nuggets | 42c | 56.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Mavericks | 54c | 54.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Nuggets | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Nuggets | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Nuggets | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Nuggets | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Nuggets | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Mavericks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Mavericks | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Mavericks | 55c | 35.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Mavericks | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Nuggets | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Nuggets | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Nuggets | 50c | 27.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Nuggets | 41c | 24.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd54b…9247backed Nuggets | 45c | 24.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Nuggets | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. MavericksNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.