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NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$267,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$269,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,581 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Under52c59,707$31,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,133.331,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over48c40,814$19,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,333.12,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Under53c39,000$20,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,669.9840446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Over50c30,337$15,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,288.7351350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Over48c26,761$12,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,922.224158.5%24 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under50c23,141$11,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,656.5887750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over50c18,835$9,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,494.1229748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under52c14,859$7,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,672.9657950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Under54c6,899$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,75012649.2%62 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over45c6,206$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,389.284,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9401,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over48c5,681$2,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,970.723,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c5,505$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,870.459,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Under56c4,403$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.435447.7%169 W · 185 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over51c4,334$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.371,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over48c4,240$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.858449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Under51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04048347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under53c3,557$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.3966250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Over47c2,790$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.66650%33 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over47c2,745$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.876,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Under53c2,601$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.8441553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over47c2,503$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.5965750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under52c2,275$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.932,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Under51c2,168$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.7532150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b3…04e1backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0201050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Over48c1,858$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.1419560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over47c1,550$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.52,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under50c1,439$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.41,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under52c1,377$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.331,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Under51c1,225$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62522035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.582,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under52c1,042$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.6737944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Over48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.679250%46 W · 46 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under54c936.69$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.453,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under51c843.14$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43016254.3%88 W · 74 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over47c702.86$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.752,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Over49c622.53$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.498961.8%55 W · 34 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27ae…bf54backed Under53c599.98$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.9916053.1%85 W · 75 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e03…ea8bbacked Under54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1615543.2%67 W · 88 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over50c328$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1641,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Over48c313$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7640648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.511051.8%57 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Over48c292$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.8423946.4%111 W · 128 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Under54c271.47$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5928537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Under50c235.98$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9923250.4%117 W · 115 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Over51c235$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1543052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Over48c200$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1059850%49 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba4d…a31ebacked Over47c190.6$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.21546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Under54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016440.9%67 W · 97 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over48c161.68$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.51,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c147$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.928,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over50c122$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6143453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over41c120.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.913,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf11e…eb4fbacked Over48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.172454.2%13 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+61.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0eb…5cc6backed Over50c99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.316540%26 W · 39 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Over51c94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7742143.7%184 W · 237 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee33…9a55backed Under54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Over55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9118456%103 W · 81 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over46c84.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5759141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over48c81.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4753043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Over47c74.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4735844.1%158 W · 200 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6630…703cbacked Over49c68.75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7511258.9%66 W · 46 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc6c…fe22backed Under58c68.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.697454.1%40 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa26…564fbacked Over47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8315449.4%76 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under56c53.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.12,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Over48c47.57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8218339.3%72 W · 111 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021756.7%123 W · 94 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f7…1cddbacked Under55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226741.8%28 W · 39 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf01…b14cbacked Under51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under51c39.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.237652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97f1…0f6bbacked Under52c38.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.962962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Under56c36.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4724363.8%155 W · 88 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e47…bfd5backed Under70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over47c33.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.788845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1485…f4b2backed Over45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.332650%13 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over46c32.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.54,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over45c31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0571245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Under50c24.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2722247.3%105 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd54b…9247backed Under54c20.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed Under56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.26943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.