TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$136,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x617b…a499backed Under54c16,914$9,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,061.3487750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under54c11,260$6,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,129.41,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over46c8,562$3,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,648.693,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd78…a4d0backed Under52c5,423$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5501,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc20c…5e6cbacked Under52c4,810$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,501.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Over46c4,530$2,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.434158.5%24 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb418…5039backed Over48c4,160$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa029…8ea8backed Under52c3,725$1,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00af…da7ebacked Under52c3,710$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.250%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb1c0…5036backed Over48c3,705$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+77.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd056…6045backed Over48c3,518$1,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd8…aed5backed Over48c3,378$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.56425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over48c3,052$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.241,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over47c2,952$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.223,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6674…45b5backed Over48c2,847$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.44560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Under52c2,800$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45649142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3225…6086backed Under52c2,740$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Under52c2,650$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37522035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c2,647$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.119,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe416…0b86backed Under51c2,478$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…245fbacked Over49c2,426$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.26560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Over45c2,368$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.2332150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c76…cc7bbacked Over48c2,300$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f95…d44bbacked Over48c2,212$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.24540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1296…be84backed Under52c2,203$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.28633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6256…1d5ebacked Over48c2,144$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.88475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3171…32a7backed Over48c2,015$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x186e…bbe0backed Over48c2,013$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over34c2,010$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.718,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29d5…759ebacked Over48c2,010$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.69560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b3…04e1backed Over64c2,000$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.081050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec18…aacfbacked Under53c1,991$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39db…d185backed Under52c1,988$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b3…96c8backed Over49c1,925$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf0…01b5backed Over49c1,887$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.74771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd35a…3017backed Under52c1,874$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab73…293ebacked Under52c1,822$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b5…93c2backed Over48c1,808$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+60.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under48c1,784$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.012,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1746…4a26backed Over49c1,636$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.36850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3490…7fdcbacked Under52c1,600$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa061…f95abacked Over48c1,600$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd8c6…9211backed Under70c1,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05014847.3%70 W · 78 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under52c1,480$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.412,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4874…7123backed Under51c1,447$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.931353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ed…7a01backed Over49c1,447$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.931384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.34per pick51cpaid+70.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc439…c5adbacked Under51c1,443$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.93742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda83…3a35backed Under52c1,400$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf44f…d6d7backed Under51c1,255$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x579d…3a38backed Under52c1,202$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Over45c1,196$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.5842648.1%205 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under52c1,155$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.62,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1974…bc18backed Under1c1,112$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.121936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under52c1,104$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.082,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fc…c91dbacked Under51c1,052$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1285…92c1backed Under51c1,043$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.93520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-61.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over46c1,030$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.295651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under51c1,007$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.5522643.8%99 W · 127 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aae…1547backed Over49c994$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f1…18febacked Under51c991$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.41633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde83…82f8backed Over49c939$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.89580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+55.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Under6c889$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3439018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f9c…5609backed Over49c881$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.31560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over40c843.29$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.2483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e2…35bdbacked Under52c801$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Under5c700$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369515.8%15 W · 80 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb796…27c4backed Over48c622$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.44560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over46c600$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.232,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under52c580$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.61,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd08…ee64backed Under55c500$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5099…7d87backed Under2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10405%2 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…c82ebacked Under52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Under52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79d1…68b3backed Under4c450$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Under56c444.25$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7828537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Under53c419.19$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2214647.9%70 W · 76 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed77…699ebacked Under52c410$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Under7c400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278511.8%10 W · 75 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ad…5092backed Under52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under69c392.51$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.661,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under51c375.67$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3763745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed Under57c350.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006552.3%34 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Under8c335$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.835326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8479…37f8backed Over30c334$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.84344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under59c312.13$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0324955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Over57c307.46$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2114255.6%79 W · 63 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Under5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51587%11 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick7cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under52c274.99$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.991,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over43c260.31$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.134,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over52c259$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3252052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c4…32d6backed Under77c240.25$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dee…d2bbbacked Under72c227.74$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.231553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac20…0714backed Under52c219$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.88520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under40c211.51$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5388845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc568…ecb7backed Under56c203.86$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152560%15 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under53c195.28$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.573,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over51c194$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0654351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.