NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c2df4a2f5b7cfd26bfec53f49495dbbaf7c51c98b99e8d20f95e1dcc2831a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Mavericks, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Mavericks | 51c | 49,321$25,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,060.52 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Nuggets | 51c | 17,599$9,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,574.27 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Nuggets | 49c | 9,898$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,047.96 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Nuggets | 49c | 8,659$4,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,416.18 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Nuggets | 54c | 7,471$3,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.94 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Nuggets | 49c | 5,183$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.74 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Nuggets | 51c | 4,329$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.51 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Nuggets | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Mavericks | 46c | 3,726$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 49c | 2,794$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 49c | 2,618$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 2,601$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.48 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 50c | 2,309$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 49c | 2,109$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.1 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,787$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.62 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks | 46c | 1,196$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.91 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 1,145$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Mavericks | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Nuggets | 54c | 620.54$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.17 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Nuggets | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Nuggets | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.77 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Mavericks | 45c | 561.84$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.59 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Mavericks | 45c | 552.55$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.65 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Nuggets | 55c | 483.64$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.64 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…1a3ebacked Nuggets | 54c | 461.31$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.2 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Mavericks | 47c | 330$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8919…feb1backed Mavericks | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Nuggets | 55c | 216.55$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…b0b3backed Mavericks | 47c | 205$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Nuggets | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Nuggets | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Nuggets | 50c | 163.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 155.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…f8c6backed Nuggets | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Mavericks | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks | 50c | 106.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…5685backed Nuggets | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Mavericks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Mavericks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Mavericks | 51c | 96.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Mavericks | 45c | 87.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Nuggets | 49c | 78.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…c0e8backed Nuggets | 55c | 70.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Nuggets | 49c | 66.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Nuggets | 49c | 60.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Mavericks | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Nuggets | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Nuggets | 49c | 59.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets | 50c | 55.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Nuggets | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Mavericks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…d2c8backed Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Nuggets | 49c | 35.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Mavericks | 52c | 35.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Nuggets | 60c | 35.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Nuggets | 52c | 34.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Mavericks | 48c | 33.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Nuggets | 50c | 31.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Mavericks | 45c | 30.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…aeefbacked Nuggets | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Nuggets | 49c | 28.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…35cbbacked Mavericks | 51c | 20.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…1b16backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…5302backed Nuggets | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. MavericksNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.