MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33c0a755ab06cd723d0d5a9d88c77d5c86caf6f4f737f31551041a31717cc230
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 56c | 49,465$27,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,700.37 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 44c | 36,106$15,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,218.74 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 44c | 10,151$4,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,684.56 | 224 | 47.3%106 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 71c | 9,423$6,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.43 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 28c | 8,441$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.53 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 67c | 1,587$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.89 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 44c | 1,299$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.26 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 1,285$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.42 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 40c | 1,026$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 904$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.16 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 44c | 800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.29 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 622.85$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.37 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 565.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 530.66$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 4c | 472$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.96 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 54c | 456.48$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 44c | 431.11$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.42 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Under | 8c | 410$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.43 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 37c | 400.51$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 378.73$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.09 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 76c | 249.5$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 212.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 46c | 192.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 27c | 187.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.75 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Under | 45c | 179.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 148.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Over | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 49c | 115.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 47c | 78.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 52c | 77.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Under | 47c | 64.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 46c | 60.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Under | 80c | 50.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 48c | 50.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 45.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 55c | 43.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 41c | 33.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 72c | 27.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 68c | 25.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 46c | 25.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 45c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 46c | 21.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 72c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…4f99backed Under | 72c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-6.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.