MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x525717e667797ebef21644fd8ebf6b1e624c0575b0e85c2119c86ffc3e570231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 59c | 40,220$23,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,912.65 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 41c | 30,631$12,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,128.35 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 40c | 17,500$7,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,450 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 59c | 11,660$6,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,928.8 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 9,429$5,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,563.12 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…fda2backed No | 60c | 8,173$4,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,903.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…29ebbacked Yes | 41c | 5,555$2,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,277.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 41c | 4,270$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,539.27 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 41c | 3,456$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.65 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 41c | 2,807$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.85 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 39c | 2,420$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.35 | 496 | 50.2%249 W · 247 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 39c | 2,170$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.94 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 60c | 2,140$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.57 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 40c | 1,726$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.99 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 61c | 1,137$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 61c | 1,038$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.01 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 47c | 934$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.94 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 890.66$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.44 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 57c | 871.28$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 58c | 688$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.41 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 60c | 501.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 182 | 52.2%95 W · 87 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 415.76$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.3 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 60c | 415$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 59c | 340$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 60c | 335.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 59c | 331$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.29 | 1,306 | 50.7%662 W · 644 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 59c | 327$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.93 | 273 | 51.6%141 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 40c | 224$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.45 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…fcb2backed No | 60c | 210$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 54c | 208$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 46c | 208$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 57.1%129 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 40c | 153.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 43c | 133$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 60c | 115.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 189 | 55.6%105 W · 84 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…81e3backed No | 59c | 94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 59c | 45.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d95…d0febacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf29c…2eadbacked No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle MarinersPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-6.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.