NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Nets: O/U 218.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33f1c0a771525dc401266224c4a8f8c89b13f3acc58ac08f59de8ebbe09301fa

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 19, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,124 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	50c	3,090$1,545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,545.24	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	2,208$1,093 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,115.43	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	54c	1,684$909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$909.36	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	46c	1,394$639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$755.64	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Over	47c	700$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371	111	37.8%42 W · 69 L	-14.2wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-28%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under	54c	544.8$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.19	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	10c	521.02$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.17	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	59c	491.28$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.86	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	41c	487.8$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.8	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked Over	46c	424$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.96	176	44.9%79 W · 97 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	46c	300$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	50.6%79 W · 77 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f9…4375backed Under	52c	153$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.56	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f30…a479backed Under	16c	150$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+4.7wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	46c	114.32$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.74	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Under	58c	91$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.78	172	33.7%58 W · 114 L	-9.7wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3f3…9b44backed Over	42c	83$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.14	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+5.2wins	+0.23per pick	42cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x725f…cea7backed Over	46c	72.15$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.96	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9644…d03bbacked Over	45c	70.83$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.8	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa26…564fbacked Over	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	154	49.4%76 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b0…8bc6backed Under	52c	55.29$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.75	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-4.5wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-72.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x213a…c46dbacked Under	55c	45.32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	50c	40.29$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.15	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under	59c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	379	59.4%225 W · 154 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over	42c	35.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.67	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	48c	33.76$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.56	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	165	46.1%76 W · 89 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e91…3e2abacked Under	51c	30.9$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-6.9wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over	40c	26.06$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.64	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b1…70e0backed Under	51c	21.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under	57c	18.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	560	43.9%246 W · 314 L	-31.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Suns vs. Nets: O/U 218.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event