TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Naz Reid: Points O/U 12.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,229 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No58c973.77$563 inWon+$410.491,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fdd…2fb9backed Yes40c559.98$224 inLost-$223.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+45.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Yes42c274.65$115 inLost-$115.0517953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No58c264$153 inWon+$110.8839265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa959…6a33backed Yes40c250$100 inLost-$1001931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes48c151.04$73 inLost-$72.621,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes43c128.95$55 inLost-$54.994,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3797…6dc9backed Yes39c120.12$47 inLost-$4750%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No60c110$66 inWon+$4427074.1%200 W · 70 L+30.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked Yes50c88$44 inLost-$4431540.3%127 W · 188 L-15.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed No57c87.48$50 inWon+$37.489558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e3…2e82backed No57c87.14$50 inWon+$37.143345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18ff…570fbacked Yes37c74.32$27 inLost-$27.49520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No61c59.99$37 inWon+$23.421672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0f39…2e49backed Yes39c47.17$18 inLost-$18.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No64c44$28 inWon+$15.8432866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed No61c40$24 inWon+$15.630256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No58c34.11$20 inWon+$14.1692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No61c17.98$11 inWon+$7.0489853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.