NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb916a55898d2c9fcc7d3f0a290bd05a508c54d562f63d3e0ae63168bcbaa0bf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,371 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 12,527$6,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,611.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…0f02backed Under | 47c | 8,298$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,397.87 | 166 | 40.4%67 W · 99 L | -14.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa729…9326backed Over | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 54c | 4,400$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.98 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf791…f982backed Under | 48c | 3,935$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x247e…c834backed Over | 50c | 2,564$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Under | 46c | 2,456$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.3 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.84 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 1,288$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.87 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 55c | 1,150$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.92 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 707.81$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.3 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…2484backed Under | 48c | 666.96$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.82 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6292…d254backed Under | 48c | 629.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.59 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 46c | 629.29$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.82 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 610.03$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.41 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…87b6backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Over | 51c | 517.98$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.17 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…f216backed Under | 46c | 515.63$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.44 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 501.94$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.11 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Under | 48c | 427.68$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 417$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.18 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Over | 53c | 371.4$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.84 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Over | 55c | 362.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 325.62$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.09 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 254.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Over | 55c | 210$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e5…df30backed Over | 54c | 186.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 173.56$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 53c | 167.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…8510backed Under | 53c | 151.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 53c | 142$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 45c | 134.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 47c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Over | 54c | 103.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…7301backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Under | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 230 | 51.3%118 W · 112 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Over | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Over | 53c | 62.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 210 | 49.5%104 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 53c | 60.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 44c | 57.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Over | 53c | 50.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 48c | 48.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 53c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…1e87backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 30.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fe…98a0backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…483abacked Over | 53c | 30.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed Over | 55c | 28.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ab…2c2fbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 50c | 26.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…2723backed Over | 56c | 20.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…c914backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. CelticsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.