NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95859388d1023ce3517aad1d67de8953cb216d5b46e73ad37ee0e01c044c87a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,237 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6734…2e18backed Celtics | 73c | 2,376$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.33 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Timberwolves | 26c | 1,793$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.95 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Timberwolves | 18c | 830.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.58 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Timberwolves | 26c | 396.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.33 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…7155backed Celtics | 78c | 255.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Celtics | 79c | 246.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.13 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…9ca9backed Timberwolves | 24c | 196.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Timberwolves | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Timberwolves | 27c | 169.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.62 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Timberwolves | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Timberwolves | 30c | 91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Timberwolves | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Celtics | 64c | 69.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Celtics | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Celtics | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…c628backed Celtics | 76c | 65.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d6…145ebacked Timberwolves | 21c | 50.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…6a38backed Timberwolves | 21c | 50.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…4182backed Timberwolves | 21c | 50.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f5…5ef2backed Timberwolves | 27c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Timberwolves | 28c | 42.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Celtics | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 279 | 42.7%119 W · 160 L | -14.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x657b…9ba4backed Celtics | 73c | 34.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0124backed Timberwolves | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Celtics | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 44.5%61 W · 76 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Celtics | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Celtics | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa181…1b5cbacked Celtics | 73c | 20.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 73cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Celtics | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. CelticsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.