NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9980949b3c6371444fac608e470e17f672df323f044e7bbfb5c29aee5f8f7492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,330 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Over | 50c | 3,786$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.05 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 51c | 1,754$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.37 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 1,269$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.33 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 49c | 1,182$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 802.45$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.99 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 589.4$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.81 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Over | 51c | 298.87$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Under | 49c | 297.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.97 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 242.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 198.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 72c | 196.32$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 50c | 158$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Under | 51c | 133.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…642dbacked Over | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Over | 51c | 89.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…e54dbacked Over | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 51c | 43.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8698…871fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b92cbacked Over | 51c | 35.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed Over | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…e7e2backed Over | 50c | 25.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 24.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 61c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 148 | 58.1%86 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. CelticsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.